Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene

Bibliographic Data

ID23320577
AuthorsWill Steffen (0000-0003-1163-6736, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden, corresponding author), Johan Rockström (0000-0001-8988-2983, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden), Katherine Richardson (0000-0003-3785-2787, Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Natural History Museum of Denmark, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark), Timothy M Lenton (0000-0002-6725-7498, University of Exeter), Carl Folke (0000-0002-4050-3281, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden), Diana Liverman (0000-0002-3671-1491, School of Geography and Development, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721), Colin Summerhayes (0000-0002-4638-4260, University of Cambridge), Colin P Summerhayes (Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge University, CB2 1ER Cambridge, United Kingdom), Anthony D Barnosky (0000-0003-0265-7113, Jasper Ridge Biological Preserve, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305), Cornell (0000-0003-4367-1296, Stockholm Resilience Centre), Sarah E Cornell (Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden), Michel Crucifix (0000-0002-3437-4911, Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium), Jonathan F Donges (0000-0001-5233-7703, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden), Ingo Fetzer (0000-0001-7335-5679, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden), Steven J Lade (0000-0001-9719-9826, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden), Marten Scheffer (0000-0002-2100-0312, Wageningen University & Research), Rainer Winkelmann (0000-0003-1248-3217, University of Potsdam), Ricarda Winkelmann (Research Domain Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany), Hans Joachim Schellnhuber (0000-0001-7453-4935, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden)
Year2018
Volume115
Issue33
Pages8252-8259
Publication date2018-08-14
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0027-8424 • E-ISSN: 1091-6490
PublisherNational Academy of Sciences (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1073/pnas.1810141115
PMID30082409
OpenAlexW2886281704
LanguageEN
Citations received606
References cited82

We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.

Anthropocene · Astrobiology · Astronomy · Earth (classical element) · Earth science · Earth system science · Environmental ethics · Physics · Earth Systems and Cosmic Evolution · Geology · Geology and Paleoclimatology Research · Global Energy and Sustainability Research · History · Oceanography · Paleontology · Philosophy

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