Winning Hearts and Minds? How the United States Reassured During the Russo-Ukrainian War
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 10071526 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Lauren Sukin (0000-0002-5775-8790, London School of Economics and Political Science, corresponding author), Stephen Herzog (0000-0002-6812-6780, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, Monterey, CA, USA), Alexander Lanoszka (0000-0001-6812-3873, University of Waterloo) |
| Year | 2025 |
| Publication date | 2025-08-12 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publishing (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1177/00220027251363229 |
| OpenAlex | W4413185958 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 1 |
| References cited | 62 |
Decades of scholarship hold that great powers shore up global confidence during crises with strong demonstrations of resolve. A much smaller literature critiques these assumptions, suggesting that restraint may strengthen confidence. When and why do restraint or resolve reassure, and for whom? In light of Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, we appraise early U.S. attempts to reassure allies and partners using public opinion surveys in 24 countries on six continents. Our novel data, which cover rarely surveyed publics, illuminates conditions under which restraint or resolve reassure. We introduce theoretical mechanisms that predict individuals’ propensity to be reassured by resolve or restraint: prior beliefs about the use of force and geopolitical positioning. The results challenge dominant scholarly narratives. Respondents worldwide were reassured by restraint. Forgoing direct intervention in the Russo-Ukrainian War strengthened the U.S.-led order, successfully balancing NATO members’ interests with those of U.S. Indo-Pacific and Global South partners
Political science · Ukrainian · European and Russian Geopolitical Military Strategies · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Nuclear Issues and Defense · Philosophy · Psychology
Restraint in International Politics
Beyond Western, Educated, Industrial, Rich, and Democratic (Weird) Psychology
Reputation for Resolve
Constructing International Security
Of Friends and Foes
Rival Reputations
Reexamining Reputation for Resolve
Accessibility and generalizability
Elite Consensus as a Determinant of Alliance Cohesion
Soldiers, Pollsters, and International Crises
Alliance and Public Preference for Nuclear Forbearance
The swing states dilemma in US alliance politics
Remember Kabul? Reputation, strategic contexts, and American credibility after the Afghanistan withdrawal
The liberal international order and the global south
How International Reputation Matters
Signaling Resolve
China’s Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict over Taiwan
What Allies Want
Then What? Assessing the Military Implications of Chinese Control of Taiwan
A U.S.-China Grand Bargain? The Hard Choice between Military Competition and Accommodation
Varieties of Assurance
Nato Defence Spending and European Threat Perceptions
The War in Ukraine and Global Nuclear Order
The Effect of Repeated Play on Reputation Building
Public Opinion, Domestic Structure, and Foreign Policy in Liberal Democracies
The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics
Does Public Opinion Affect the Preferences of Foreign Policy Leaders? Experimental Evidence from the UK Parliament
Moral Support
Coercion and the Credibility of Assurances
Under the Umbrella
Signaling Foreign Policy Interests
Tying Hands, Sinking Costs, and Leader Attributes
Credible Nuclear Security Commitments Can Backfire
Stability and Alliance Cohesion
Security Guarantees and Allied Nuclear Proliferation
Commitment, Threat Perceptions, and Expenditures in a Defense Alliance
Credibility in Crises
External Threat and Alliance Formation
Public Opinion and Decisions About Military Force in Democracies
Reputation, Symmetry, and Alliance Design
Revisiting Reputation
Trust, Reassurance, and Cooperation
Autocratic Audience Costs
Alliances
Re‐Assessing Elite‐Public Gaps in Political Behavior
Alliances and Asymmetry
Divided Priorities
Trivial Tripwires
Hypotheses on Reputation
A Reputation versus Prioritization Trade-Off
Alliance Cohesion and Coalition Warfare
Why Alliances Entangle But Seldom Entrap States
Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations
The challenges confronting US extended nuclear assurance in Asia
Extended Deterrence and the Outbreak of War
European public opinion
| Unique citing works | 1 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 1 |