Why Factions Switch Sides in Civil Wars
Rivalry, Patronage, and Realignment in Sudan
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 11262058 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Lee J M Seymour (Lee J.M. Seymour is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Amsterdam., corresponding author) |
| Year | 2014 |
| Volume | 39 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 92-131 |
| Publication date | 2014-10-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Security (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0162-2889 • E-ISSN: 1531-4804 |
| Publisher | MIT Press - Journals (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1162/isec_a_00179 |
| OpenAlex | W2099316270 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 59 |
| References cited | 63 |
Side switching by armed groups is a prominent feature of many civil wars. Shifts in alignment have far-reaching consequences, influencing key outcomes such as civil war duration and termination, military effectiveness, levels of civilian victimization, and state-building prospects. In Sudan's wars, ideological and ethnic cleavages have not influenced factional alignments nearly as much as one might expect given the prominence of clashing political projects and ethnically organized violence in southern Sudan and Darfur. Recent explanations highlighting the role of territorial control, factional infighting, or relative power considerations also have limited value. In many wars fought in weak states characterized by low barriers to side switching, two mechanisms explain patterns of collaboration and defection: first, political rivalries that lead actors to collaborate in exchange for military support in localized struggles; and second, patronage-based incentives that induce collaboration for material gain. A nested analysis drawing on original data from wars in southern Sudan and Darfur supports this argument. The findings have implications for understanding alignments in civil wars, the role of weak states in counterinsurgency, and ethnic politics more generally, as well as policy relevance for factionalized civil wars
Argument (complex analysis · Development economics · Economics · Ethnic group · Ideology · Incentive · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Power (physics · Rivalry · Sociology · Spanish Civil War · State (computer science · International Development and Aid · Law · Peacebuilding and International Security · Political Conflict and Governance
Governing Security after War
Death, Dominance, and State-Building
A Winning Team of Losers
Pink Slips from the Underground
Organizational Bricolage and Insurgent Group Effectiveness in Cities
Same Same but Different? Ideological Differentiation and Intra-jihadist Competition in the Syrian Civil War
The Strategic Logic of Large Militant Alliance Networks
Sudan Conflict Impact on the Horn of Africa Security
Mobilization and Conflict in Multiethnic States
Borderland Battles
How Insurgency Begins
Programmatic Incompatibility
Capturing group alignments
The emergence of splinter factions in intrastate conflict
Rebel fragmentation in the time of peace negotiations
Ideological Proximity and Armed Group Competition
Coalition Politics and War Termination
The Evolution of Civil Wars Research
Rebel Governance Structures and Violence in Apartheid South Africa
Turning the Tide
Saints and Warriors
Auxiliary Armed Forces and Innovations in Security Governance in Mozambique’s Civil War
Factionalisation from Below
Sahelistan? Military Intervention and Patronage Politics in Afghanistan and Mali
Civil Conflict Fragmentation and the Effectiveness of UN Peacekeeping Operations
From Control to Conflict
The Positional Problem in civil wars
Creating (with) community
When armed groups refuse to carry out election violence
Wars within Wars
Why rebels rely on terrorists
The scope of political jurisdictions and violence
Armed Group Consolidation
The Logic of Illicit Flows in Armed Conflict
Progovernment militias, identity leadership, and ethnic defection
Switching Sides
Exit, Resistance, Loyalty
Pathways to Cooperation
Disaggregating Defection
Roads to Rule, Roads to Rebel
The Ties That Bind
The Grass Is Always Greener? Armed Group Side Switching in Civil Wars
Why Onset Matters
The Puzzle of Militia Containment in Civil War
Do Birds of a Feather Flock Together? Rebel Constituencies and Civil War Alliances
Rebel Leaders, Internal Rivals, and External Resources
Desertion and Collective Action in Civil Wars
Rumors, Kinship Networks, and Rebel Group Formation
One for All? State Violence and Insurgent Cohesion
The New New Civil Wars
Taking Causal Heterogeneity Seriously
Performing Rebellion
Rebel Fragmentation and Protracted Conflicts
Shattering impact of the Sudan conflict on regional stability
On-Side fighting in civil war
Taking Sides in Wars of Attrition
Fratricide in rebel movements
Obstruction and intimidation of peacekeepers
E pluribus unum, ex uno plures
Darfur
States and Power in Africa: Comparative Lessons in Authority and Control
Why civil resistance works
Warfare in Independent Africa
Ethnicity without groups
The Politics of Collective Violence
In Harm's Way
Patronage Politics and the Behavior of Armed Groups
Negotiated Settlements and Government Strategy in Civil War
Ideology and Violence in Civil Wars
Post-war Conflict and the Market for Protection
Kadyrov's Chechnya—Template, Test or Trouble for Russia's Regional Policy
The Anbar Awakening
Triggering Nationalist Violence
Governance without Government in Somalia
Why Civil Resistance Works
The Structure of Success
Organizing Insurgency
Spoiling Inside and Out
When All Else Fails
Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes
Testing the Surge
The security dilemma and ethnic conflict
The Ontology of “Political Violence
A Plague of Initials
States, Insurgents, and Wartime Political Orders
Commitment Problems or Bidding Wars? Rebel Fragmentation as Peace Building
Rebels against Rebels
Recruitment and Allegiance
Rebel Interdependencies and Civil War Outcomes
Shirts Today, Skins Tomorrow
Enduring Rivalries
Sabotaging the Peace
The Social Processes of Civil War
Veto Players and Civil War Duration
Combatant Fragmentation and the Dynamics of Civil Wars
Loyalty Strategies and Military Defection in Rebellion
Following the Money
When kleptocracy becomes insolvent
Rebel movements and proxy warfare
Military (mis)adventures in Mali
The Enemy Within
Postconflict Reconstruction in Africa
Social capital and civil war
Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Ethnic Defection in Civil War
Winning the war, but losing the peace? The dilemma of SPLM/A civil administration and the tasks ahead
The South Sudan Defence Force
A Curse from God? Religious and political dimensions of the post-1991 rise of ethnic violence in South Sudan
Understanding strategic choice
Enduring Internal Rivalries
Divide and Conquer or Divide and Concede
Mission without end? Peacekeeping in the African political marketplace
Organizing Rebellion
Explaining Interethnic Cooperation
Are Coethnics More Effective Counterinsurgents? Evidence from the Second Chechen War
Horizontal Inequalities and Ethnonationalist Civil War
Nested Analysis as a Mixed-Method Strategy for Comparative Research
Ethnic Cleavages and Irregular War
Revolution in the revolution
| Unique citing works | 59 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 5,36 |
| Citation span | 2015 - 2026 (12) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 59 |