Do UN Interventions Cause Peace? Using Matching to Improve Causal Inference
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12802466 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Michael J Gilligan (0000-0003-3881-1717, corresponding author), Ernest Sergenti |
| Year | 2008 |
| Volume | 3 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 89-122 |
| Publication date | 2008-07-29 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Quarterly Journal of Political Science (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1554-0626 • E-ISSN: 1554-0634 |
| Publisher | Now Publishers (PUBLISHER • NL) |
| DOI | 10.1561/100.00007051 |
| OpenAlex | W2109736130 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 138 |
| References cited | 42 |
Previous statistical studies of the effects of UN peacekeeping have generally suggested that UN interventions have a positive effect on building a sustainable peace after civil war. Recent methodological developments have questioned this result because the cases in which the United Nations intervened were quite different from those in which they did not. Therefore the estimated causal effect may be due to the assumptions of the model that the researchers chose rather than to peacekeeping itself. The root of the problem is that UN missions are not randomly assigned. We argue that standard approaches for dealing with this problem (Heckman regression and instrumental variables) are invalid and impracticable in the context of UN peacekeeping and would lead to estimates of the effects of UN operations that are largely a result of the assumptions of the statistical model rather than the data. We correct for the effects of nonrandom assignment with matching techniques on a sample of UN interventions in post-Cold-War conflicts and find that UN interventions are indeed effective in the sample of post-civil-conflict interventions, but that UN interventions while civil wars are still ongoing have no causal effect
Causal inference · Criminology · Econometrics · Economics · Inference · Matching (statistics · Political science · Positive economics · Psychological intervention · Statistics · Computer Science · International Development and Aid · Mathematics · Peacebuilding and International Security · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Social Psychology · Artificial Intelligence
Stabilization at the Expense of Peacebuilding in UN Peacekeeping Operations
Incredible Commitments
Multivariate and Propensity Score Matching Software with Automated Balance Optimization
As Time Goes by
International Peacebuilding and Local Success
A Multi‐Transition Approach to Evaluating Peacekeeping Effectiveness
Composing Peace
Peacekeeping, Policing, and the Rule of Law after Civil War
The Wartime Origins of Democratization
Power in Peacekeeping
Natural Experiments in the Social Sciences
Peacekeepers Abroad
Mandates through the rule of law
Powers for Peace
When the Going Gets Tough… Monitoring Missions and a Changing Conflict Environment in Sri Lanka, 2002–2008
Challenges to Inference in the Study of Crisis Bargaining
In Praise of Tents
Political Leadership Changes and the Withdrawal from Military Coalition Operations, 1946-2001
Does peacekeeping by civilians work? Reducing armed violence without armed force
How Humanitarian Intervention Can Succeed
Finding the Utility of Force to Protect Civilians from Violence
Nationality, Gender, and Deployments at the Local Level
Deploying to Protect
The Foundations of a Research Agenda
Conflict, Peacekeeping, and Humanitarian Security
Liberal Peace Implementation and the Durability of Post-war Peace
How Do Non-UN Peacekeepers Affect Civilian Violence? An Instrument Investigation
Do child soldiers influence UN Peacekeeping
Once and Future Peacemakers
Saving Strangers Selectively
The European Union’s Role in United Nations Peacekeeping Operations
The Dance of Peace and Justice
The Pieces Kept after Peace is Kept
Just Different Hats? Comparing UN and Non-UN Peacekeeping
Civil Conflict Fragmentation and the Effectiveness of UN Peacekeeping Operations
Peacekeeping is Not Counterinsurgency
UN Peacekeeping and Forced Displacement in South Sudan
Teaching Counterfactuals from Hell
The UN at the peacemaking–peacebuilding nexus
United Nations peacekeeping dynamics and the duration of post-civil conflict peace
United Nations peacekeeping personnel commitments, 1990–2011
Fear of rejection
Which comes first? Unpacking the relationship between peace agreements and peacekeeping missions
UN fatalities 1948–2015
Do non-UN peacekeeping operations work in conjunction with UN peacekeeping troops to reduce civilian casualties
Keeping electoral peace? Activities of United Nations peacekeeping operations and their effects on election-related violence
United Nations peacekeeping operations and multilateral foreign aid
Trading peace for hazard management? peace agreement implementation and United Nations peace operations during natural hazards
Practices and outcomes of humanitarian military interventions
Reevaluating Peacekeeping Effectiveness
UN Troop Deployment and Preventing Violence Against Civilians in Darfur
United Nations peacekeeping and terrorism
Interpol's Surveillance Network in Curbing Transnational Terrorism
When Do Displaced Persons Return? Postwar Migration among Christians in Mount Lebanon
A Question of Faith
The UN peacebuilding process
Foreign interests and state repression
Negotiating peacekeeping consent
Does Peacekeeping Mitigate the Impact of Aid on Conflict? Peacekeeping, Humanitarian Aid and Violence Against Civilians
The Promise of Peacekeeping
Effects of the Deployment and Departure of UN Peacekeeping Operations on Foreign Direct Investment
Distributional effects of political power-sharing arrangements and their negative consequences for post-agreement stability
Why peace endures
Can international interventions secure the peace
Does peacekeeping deter terrorism?’
Why Does Ethnicity Increase in Salience as Political Order Decays
Political Transitions and Macro-level Foundations of Political Stability
Peacekeeping Deployments and Mutinies in African Sending States
Intrastate Armed Conflict Termination and Foreign Direct Investment
Bullets for Ballots
Forced to Be Free
Multidimensional Peacekeeping
A Cautionary Note on the Use of Matching to Estimate Causal Effects
UN involvement and civil war peace agreement implementation
Is one's happiness associated with their spouse's income, and vice versa? Insights from China
U.N. Peacekeeping Forces and the Demand for Sex Trafficking
United Nations Bias and Force Commitments in Civil Conflicts
Humanitarian Assistance and the Duration of Peace after Civil War
Evaluating the Conflict-Reducing Effect of UN Peacekeeping Operations
Peacekeeping and the Contagion of Armed Conflict
Causal Empiricism in Quantitative Research
Beyond Keeping the Peace
Flexible Causal Inference for Political Science
Afghanistan
Has Violence Declined in World Politics
Killing Kony
Cut Short? United Nations Peacekeeping and Civil War Duration to Negotiated Settlements
Contributing to Peace
External Subsidies and Lasting Peace
Managing Threat, Cost, and Incentive to Kill
Expecting Elections
Third-Party Conflict Management and the Willingness to Make Concessions
Advancing the Frontier of Peacekeeping Research
Promoting Political Participation in War-torn Countries
International Peacekeeping and Positive Peace
Managing Mistrust
You Can’t Win If You Don’t Fight
The Importance of UN Security Council Resolutions in Peacekeeping Operations
International Peacekeeping Operations
What is in a Mandate? Introducing the UN Peace Mission Mandates Dataset
Observational Studies
Reducing Bias in Observational Studies Using Subclassification on the Propensity Score
On economic causes of civil war
Shake hands with the devil
Peacemaking in Rwanda
Greed and grievance in civil war
Where Do the Peacekeepers Go?1
Mediation and Peacekeeping in a Random Walk Model of Civil and Interstate War
Democracies and UN peacekeeping operations, 1990–1996
Reconstructing the correlates of war dataset on material capabilities of states, 1816–1985
Of Dinosaurs and Barbecue Sauce
Monitoring Trends in Global Combat
The United States and United Nations in Somalia
Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict
Officers King and Zeng and the Case of the Unsupported Counterfactual
Why Peacekeeping Fails
Building Peace in West Africa
Stabilizing the Peace After Civil War
No Easy Choices
The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals
Genetic Optimization Using Derivatives
Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference
Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset
Third-party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts
How Much War Will we see
Deciding to Keep Peace
Killing Time
When Can History Be Our Guide? The Pitfalls of Counterfactual Inference
Making and Keeping Peace
Rationalist explanations for war
The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement
War as a Commitment Problem
Does Peacekeeping Keep Peace? International Intervention and the Duration of Peace After Civil War
Give War a Chance
The Duration and Termination of Civil War
Armed Conflict 1946-2001
Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others
The Inefficient Use of Power
International Peacebuilding
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
| Unique citing works | 138 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 8,12 |
| Citation span | 2009 - 2026 (18) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 137 |