Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 12929196 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Mark Rounsevell (0000-0001-7476-9398, University of Edinburgh, corresponding author), Patrick Metzger (0000-0002-5119-5894, University of Edinburgh) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 1 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 606-619 |
| Publication date | 2010-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1757-7780 • E-ISSN: 1757-7799 |
| Publisher | Wiley (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1002/wcc.63 |
| OpenAlex | W1902577000 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 90 |
| References cited | 60 |
This article reviews the historic evolution of qualitative scenario storylines and the various methods used in their development and application in environmental change assessment. The scenario method largely emerged from military strategy and war planning, with the techniques being adopted and advanced further by the business sector. Scenario storylines became widely applied to environmental problems from the 1970s and since then a number of new studies have been developed at both global and regional scales. Many different methods are used in scenario storyline development although most examples applied to environmental change assessment are exploratory and defined through a matrix logic that reflects different dimensions of environmental change drivers. This article discusses several development techniques for scenario storylines, provides examples of existing scenario storylines, discusses the differences between them, and highlights a number of limitations in the current scenario storyline development methods. The credibility, legitimacy, and saliency of future scenario storylines are discussed with respect to personal beliefs, the equifinality of alternative development pathways, the validation and uncertainty of assumptions, stakeholder engagement in visions development, and participatory methods. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Scenario Development and Application Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Integrated Scenario Development
Business · Citizen journalism · Climate change · Credibility · Equifinality · Management science · Political science · Process management · Public relations · Scenario analysis · Scenario planning · Sociology · Stakeholder · Stakeholder engagement · Vision · Complex Systems and Decision Making · Computer Science · Engineering · Environmental and Social Impact Assessments · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance
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| Unique citing works | 90 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 5,63 |
| Citation span | 2010 - 2026 (17) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 84 |