Convection in future winter storms over Northern Europe

Datos Bibliográficos

ID15545190
AutoresSégolène Berthou (0000-0002-9164-0841, Met Office, autor de correspondencia), Malcolm Roberts (0000-0001-6128-6979, Met Office), Benoît Vannière (0000-0001-8600-400X, National Centre for Atmospheric Science), Nikolina Ban (0000-0002-1672-3655, Universität Innsbruck), Danijel Belušić (0000-0002-5665-3866, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute), Cécile Caillaud (0000-0003-2317-4129, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique), Thomas D Crocker (0000-0001-7761-5546, Met Office), Hylke de Vries (0000-0002-6124-1102, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute), Andreas Dobler (0000-0001-9490-0840, Norwegian Meteorological Institute), Dan Harris (0000-0003-4369-4674, Met Office), Elizabeth Kendon (0000-0003-1538-2147, Met Office), Oskar Landgren (0000-0002-6264-8502, Norwegian Meteorological Institute), Colin Manning (0000-0001-5364-3569, Newcastle University)
Año2022
Volumen17
Número11
Páginas114055-114055
Fecha de publicación2022-11-01
Peer ReviewedSí
Open AccessSí
TipoARTICLE
RevistaEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Identificadores de la revistaISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
EditorialIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/aca03a
OpenAlexW4308342052
IdiomaEN
Citas recibidas1
Referencias citadas46

Precipitation within extratropical cyclones is very likely to increase towards the end of the century in a business-as-usual scenario. We investigate hourly precipitation changes in end-of-century winter storms with the first km-scale model ensemble covering northwest Europe and the Baltic region. This is an ensemble that explicitly represents convection (convection permitting models (CPMs)). Models agree that future winter storms will bring 10%–50% more precipitation, with the same level of light precipitation but more moderate and heavy precipitation, together with less frequent frozen precipitation. The warm sector precipitation rates will get closer (up to similar) to those in present-day autumn storms, along with higher convective available potential energy and convective inhibition, suggesting more convection embedded in storms. To the first order, mean hourly precipitation changes in winter storms are driven by temperature increase (with little relative humidity changes) and storm dynamical intensity (more uncertain), both captured by regional climate models (RCMs). The CPMs agree with this, and in addition, most CPMs show more increase in intense precipitation in the warm sector of storms compared to their parent RCM

Atmospheric sciences · Climate change · Climate model · Climatology · Convection · Convective storm detection · Extratropical cyclone · Geography · Meteorology · Precipitation · Storm · Winter storm · Climate variability and models · Environmental Science · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Geology · Oceanography