Emergence timescales for detection of anthropogenic climate change in US tropical cyclone loss data
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 15545668 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Ryan P Crompton (Macquarie University, corresponding author), Roger A Pielke (0000-0002-9617-8764, University of Colorado Boulder), Roger A Pielke Jr, K John McAneney (Macquarie University) |
| Year | 2011 |
| Volume | 6 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 014003-014003 |
| Publication date | 2011-01-01 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Environmental Research Letters (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326 |
| Publisher | IOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/6/1/014003 |
| OpenAlex | W2171309782 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 10 |
| References cited | 10 |
Recent reviews have concluded that efforts to date have yet to detect or attribute an anthropogenic climate change influence on Atlantic tropical cyclone (of at least tropical storm strength) behaviour and concomitant damage. However, the possibility of identifying such influence in the future cannot be ruled out. Using projections of future tropical cyclone activity from a recent prominent study we estimate the time that it would take for anthropogenic signals to emerge in a time series of normalized US tropical cyclone losses. Depending on the global climate model(s) underpinning the projection, emergence timescales range between 120 and 550 years, reflecting a large uncertainty. It takes 260 years for an 18-model ensemble-based signal to emerge. Consequently, under the projections examined here, the detection or attribution of an anthropogenic signal in tropical cyclone loss data is extremely unlikely to occur over periods of several decades (and even longer). This caution extends more generally to global weather-related natural disaster losses
Atlantic hurricane · Climate change · Climatology · Cyclone (programming language · Geography · Meteorology · Range (aeronautics · Storm · Tropical cyclone · Tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting · Tropical cyclone scales · Climate variability and models · Computer Science · Environmental Science · Ocean Waves and Remote Sensing · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Geology · Oceanography
Climate Change and Disaster Management
Sensitivity of tropical cyclone risk across the US to changes in storm climatology and socioeconomic growth
Global Warming Effects on U.S. Hurricane Damage
Normalised New Zealand natural Disaster insurance losses
Normalised insurance losses from Australian natural disasters
Economic ‘normalisation’ of disaster losses 1998–2020
Deep uncertainty in long-term hurricane risk
Projections of Future Extreme Weather Losses Under Changes in Climate and Exposure
Climate change, Atlantic storm activity and the regional socio-economic impacts on the Caribbean
Geographies of Securitized Catastrophe Risk and the Implications of Climate Change
Tropical cyclones and climate change
Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes
Have Disaster Losses Increased Due to Anthropogenic Climate Change?
Normalized Hurricane Damage in the United States
Normalised Australian insured losses from meteorological hazards
Tropical cyclone losses in the USA and the impact of climate change — A trend analysis based on data from a new approach to adjusting storm losses
| Citations per year | 0.67 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2011 - 2025 (15) |
| Highly cited | No |