A comparative study of past and projected future dynamics of drought hazards across the districts of the Northern Cape Province, South Africa
Analysis of CRU TS4 data and Cordex-Africa RCM simulations
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 21540604 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Stephen Balaka Opiyo (0000-0003-3157-5192, North-West University, corresponding author), Lisa Pienaar (0000-0003-0113-0715, North-West University), Stuart Piketh (0000-0002-2804-879X, North-West University), Roelof Petrus Burger (0000-0002-4359-4588, North-West University), Hector Chikoore (0000-0002-2625-8881, University of Limpopo), Henno Havenga (0000-0002-9238-0295, North-West University) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 108 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Publication date | 2026-12-31 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | South African Geographical Journal (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0373-6245 • E-ISSN: 2151-2418 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/03736245.2025.2490599 |
| OpenAlex | W4409334279 |
| Language | EN |
| References cited | 62 |
Drought is among the most pressing natural disasters of the 21st century. The need for insights to support local decision-making in planning and mitigation is critical. The Northern Cape Province of South Africa is highly drought-prone, yet its historical and projected drought patterns are not well understood. Therefore, this study assessed past (1962–2022), near-future (2023–2050), and far-future (2051–2100) drought dynamics across its five district municipalities—Frances Baard, John Taolo Gaetsewe, Namakwa, Pixley Ka Seme, and ZF Mgcawu—using CRU data and CORDEX-Africa RCM simulations based on CMIP6. Drought characteristics were analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) at 6-, 12-, and 24-month timescales. Results revealed significant spatial and temporal variability. Frances Baard and John Taolo Gaetsewe experienced the most frequent short-term droughts, with far-future projections indicating a significant intensification of drought events (up to 8.2 events/decade for the 6-month SPEI). Namakwa and Pixley Ka Seme recorded the longest multi-year droughts historically (up to 78 months for the 24-month SPEI), with far-future projections showing continued severity for long-term droughts. Mann-Kendall trend analysis indicated significant upward trends in drought frequency and duration in Frances Baard and John Taolo Gaetsewe, while Namakwa showed mixed trends—a near-future decline followed by far-future intensification
Archaeology · Cape · Climatology · Cru · Geography · Meteorology · Precipitation · Regional science · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Climate variability and models · Hydrology and Drought Analysis · Geology
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| Citation velocity | historical |
|---|---|
| Highly cited | No |