Beware of samples! A cognitive-ecological sampling approach to judgment biases.
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 23364403 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Klaus Fiedler (0000-0002-3475-0868, Heidelberg University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2000 |
| Volume | 107 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 659-676 |
| Publication date | 2000-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Psychological Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0033-295X • E-ISSN: 1939-1471 |
| Publisher | American Psychological Association (APA) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1037/0033-295x.107.4.659 |
| PMID | 11089402 |
| OpenAlex | W2064226402 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 77 |
| References cited | 64 |
A cognitive-ecological approach to judgment biases is presented and substantiated by recent empirical evidence. Latent properties of the environment are not amenable to direct assessment but have to be inferred from empirical samples that provide the interface between cognition and the environment. The sampling process may draw on the external world or on internal memories. For systematic reasons (proximity, salience, and focus of attention), the resulting samples tend to be biased (selective, skewed, or conditional on information search strategies). Because people lack the metacognitive ability to understand and control for sampling constraints (predictor sampling, criterion sampling, selective-outcome sampling, etc.), the sampling biases carry over to subsequent judgments. Within this framework, alternative accounts are offered for a number of judgment biases, such as base-rate neglect, confirmation bias, illusory correlation, pseudo-contingency, Simpson's paradox, outgroup devaluation, and pragmatic-confusion effects.
Cognition · Cognitive bias · Cognitive psychology · Confirmation bias · Metacognition · Neglect · Salience (neuroscience) · Sampling (signal processing) · Clinical Reasoning and Diagnostic Skills · Computer Science · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Psychology · Psychology of Moral and Emotional Judgment · Social Psychology
Simpson's paradox in psychological science
Revisiting the Open Sampling format
Observed Variability and Values Matter
Navigating the Social Environment
Interdependent sampling and social influence
A sampling model of social judgment
The trouble with overconfidence
The religiosity as social value hypothesis
The redundancy in cumulative information and how it biases impressions
Towards a deeper understanding of impression formation—New insights gained from a cognitive-ecological perspective
More is not less
Seeing what can(not) be seen
Mindful Judgment and Decision Making
Beyond dual-process models
Why Wealthier People Think People Are Wealthier, and Why It Matters
Social Projection to Ingroups and Outgroups
Decisions from Experience and the Effect of Rare Events in Risky Choice
Simple Heuristics in a Social World
Cognitive approaches to summary measurement
Intuition
Toward Parsimony in Bias Research
Improving the Generalizability of Behavioral Science by Using Reality Checks
The Future of Decisions From Experience
The Strengths and Weaknesses of Crowds to Address Global Problems
Individual differences in epistemically suspect beliefs
Using theoretical constraints and the Tasi taxonomy to delineate predictably replicable findings
Small Sample Size and Group Homogeneity
What’s in a sample? Epistemic uncertainty and metacognitive awareness in risk taking
What comes to mind
The perception of dramatic risks
Why leading is (almost) as important as winning
A description–experience gap in statistical intuitions
From menus to misbeliefs
Can People Judge the Veracity of Their Intuitions
Stereotype Formation but No Dissociation
The Differential Effects of Hope and Fear on Information Processing in Intractable Conflict
Leaders May Not be to Blame for the Prevalence of Low Enrichment
Do preservice teachers’ judgments and judgment accuracy depend on students’ characteristics? The effect of gender and immigration background
Unraveling threats in parasocial relationships
Living and Learning
What is learned from experience in a probabilistic environment
On the Decision to Explore New Alternatives
Dyadic judgments based on conflicting samples
Metacognitive myopia and the overutilization of misleading advice
The influence of biased exposure to forgone outcomes
People imitate others' dishonesty but do not intentionally search information about it
Probability estimation in poker
Detection and Selection Decisions with Conditional Feedback
Role‐Induced Bias in Court
Reporting bias inflates the reputation of medical treatments
Biased belief in the Bayesian brain
Middle-Income Groups Perceive Themselves as Belonging to a Higher Social Class When National Income Inequality is Greater
Exploring the sequential mediation model of coping humor, self-esteem, resilience, and subjective well-being among Taiwanese university students
Why Most People Disapprove of Me
Processes of Social Influence on Sampling Behavior
Cognitive Processes in Stereotype Formation
Contingency learning and stereotype formation
The evaluative information ecology
Stereotypes as Pseudocontingencies
The development of escalation bias across the life span
How to define and measure risk perceptions
Different principles of information integration in implicit and explicit attitude formation
From intrapsychic to ecological theories in social psychology
Individual differences in prejudice and associative versus rule-based forms of transitive reasoning
Great oaks from giant acorns grow
Playing Mating Games in Foreign Cultures
Selective exposure to deserved outcomes
Illusory correlation, group size and memory
Summarized and sequential discrimination - A paradigm for research on the perception of multiple instances of discrimination
Individual differences in escalation of commitment
Social and Cognitive Aspects of the Vulnerability to Political Misinformation
Modern prejudice and strength of conjunction error
The Role of Representative Design in an Ecological Approach to Cognition
Amplification in the evaluation of multiple emotional expressions over time
Homophily and minority-group size explain perception biases in social networks
Rereading as a Mechanism of Defamiliarization in Proust
Is It All About Retribution? The Flexibility of Punishment Goals
Human inference
Metacognition
A Treatise on Probability
Perception and the Representative Design of Psychological Experiments
Norm theory
A law of comparative judgment.
Monitoring one's own knowledge during study
Confidence in judgment
Reasons for confidence.
Stimulus Sampling and Social Psychological Experimentation
Frequency and the conference of referential validity
Probabilistic mental models
Subjective probability
The relationship between memory and judgment depends on whether the judgment task is memory-based or on-line.
A rational analysis of the selection task as optimal data selection.
Toward an Integration of Cognitive and Motivational Perspectives on Social Inference
Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology.
Social perception and social reality
Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing.
Support theory
Judgment under Uncertainty
The Social Identity Theory of Intergroup Behavior
Social Judgment Theory
Recent Research on Selective Exposure to Information
Beyond Bipolar Conceptualizations and Measures
The logic of social exchange
A Theory of Cognitive Dissonance
Domain-specific reasoning
Intergroup Cognition and Intergroup Behavior
Resolving social conflicts and field theory in social science
Attribution of success and failure revisited, or
The Message Within
Explaining Asymmetric Intergroup Judgments through Differential Aggregation
Stereotype‐Based Expectancies
The auto-verification of social hypotheses
Linguistic intergroup bias
Two halfs may be more than one whole
Looking for truth in all the wrong places? Asymmetric search of individuating information about stereotyped group members
Interpreting regression toward the mean in developmental research
Illusory correlation in interpersonal perception
Illusory correlation in a simulated exemplar-based memory
Do YouReallyKnow What You Have Seen? Intrusion Errors and Presuppositions Effects on Constructive Memory
Information-gathering processes
Illusory Correlations and Memory Performance
From tools to theories
Teacher expectations
Constructive biases in social judgment
Natural sample spaces and uncertain belief
Hypothesis confirmation
In-group favoritism and statistical reasoning in social inference
Hypothesis-testing processes in social interaction
Perceiver-induced constraint
The tricky nature of skewed frequency tables
Confirmatory and diagnosing strategies in social information gathering
Self-reports
How to improve Bayesian reasoning without instruction
Availability
An Introduction to Sample Selection Bias in Sociological Data
The case for motivated reasoning
Theory and research concerning social comparisons of personal attributes
Belief in the law of small numbers
Human contingency judgments
Explanation, imagination, and confidence in judgment
Consequences of prejudice against the null hypothesis
| Unique citing works | 77 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3,21 |
| Citation span | 2002 - 2026 (25) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 66 |