The Geography of Racially Polarized Voting
Calibrating Surveys at the District Level
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3249703 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Shiro Kuriwaki (0000-0002-5687-2647, Yale University, corresponding author), Stephen Ansolabehere (0000-0001-5240-9084, Harvard University Press, corresponding author), Angelo Dagonel (Harvard University Press, corresponding author), Soichiro Yamauchi (0000-0003-0554-2717, Film Independent, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 118 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 922-939 |
| Publication date | 2024-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Political Science Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s0003055423000436 |
| OpenAlex | W4382280080 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 9 |
| References cited | 58 |
Debates over racial voting, and over policies to combat vote dilution, turn on the extent to which groups' voting preferences differ and vary across geography. We present the first study of racial voting patterns in every congressional district (CD) in the United States. Using large-sample surveys combined with aggregate demographic and election data, we find that national-level differences across racial groups explain 60% of the variation in district-level voting patterns, whereas geography explains 30%. Black voters consistently choose Democratic candidates across districts, whereas Hispanic and white voters' preferences vary considerably across geography. Districts with the highest racial polarization are concentrated in the parts of the South and Midwest. Importantly, multiracial coalitions have become the norm: in most CDs, the winning majority requires support from non-white voters. In arriving at these conclusions, we make methodological innovations that improve the precision and accuracy when modeling sparse survey data
Democracy · Demographic economics · Economics · Geography · Norm (philosophy · Polarization (electrochemistry · Political science · Politics · Sociology · Statistics · Survey data collection · Voting · Demography · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Mathematics · Migration, Refugees, and Integration · Urban, Neighborhood, and Segregation Studies
After Alexander
Race, Responsiveness, and Representation in U.S. Lawmaking
Improving Small-Area Estimates of Public Opinion by Calibrating to Known Population Quantities
Making online polls more accurate
Dilutive Drift
Rural–urban divide in support for renewable energy policy
Crossover Voting Rates in Partisan and Nonpartisan Elections
Rural residency, rural resentment, and attitudes toward public land management in the United States
Place-Based Partisanship
The shaping of Southern politics
Southern politics in State and Nation
The Space between Us
The Increasingly United States
Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models
Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State
Behind the Mule
BRMS
Why Did the Democrats Lose the South? Bringing New Data to an Old Debate
Steadfast Democrats
Quiet Revolution in the South
The Politics of Resentment
Understanding the Asian American Vote in the 2016 Election
The Collaborative Multiracial Post-Election Survey (Cmps)
Iff the Assumption Fits
A Tale of “Two Souths”
Why Cities Lose
Best practices in collecting online data with Asian, Black, Latino, and White respondents
Deep roots
How Should We Measure District-Level Public Opinion on Individual Issues
The Foundations of Latino Voter Partisanship
Obstacles to Estimating Voter ID Laws’ Effect on Turnout
Polarizing the Electoral Connection
It’s Nothing Personal
The Curious Case of Black “Conservatives
Obama and the White Vote
A New Measure of Group Influence in Presidential Elections
Estimating Racially Polarized Voting
Asians?A monolithic voting bloc
The Urban–Rural Gulf in American Political Behavior
Voter Registration Databases and MRP
How Does Multilevel Regression and Poststratification Perform with Conventional National Surveys
Recalibration of Predicted Probabilities Using the “Logit Shift
The Dynamics of Racial Resentment across the 50 US States
Extending the Use and Prediction Precision of Subnational Public Opinion Estimation
How Should We Estimate Public Opinion in The States
Deep Interactions with MRP
Rural Voters and the Polarization of American Presidential Elections
Why context should not count
The perils of cherry picking low frequency events in large sample surveys
Where the Votes Come From
Political Parties, Public Opinion, and State Policy in the United States
Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion among Political Elites
The Effect of Black Congressional Representation on Political Participation
Politicized Places
Legislative Staff and Representation in Congress
A Logical Model for Predicting Minority Representation
| Unique citing works | 9 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 4,5 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2026 (3) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 9 |