The Conditional Impact of Incumbency on Government Formation
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3483718 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Leonard W Martins (0000-0003-4051-3495, Rice University, corresponding author), Lanny W Martins, Lanny W Martin, Randolph T Stevenson (0000-0003-2565-1355, Rice University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 104 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 503-518 |
| Publication date | 2010-08-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Political Science Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s0003055410000213 |
| OpenAlex | W2154617001 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 92 |
| References cited | 36 |
Previous research on coalition politics has found an "incumbency advantage" in government formation, but it has provided no clear explanation as to why this advantage exists. We classify existing theories as either preference-based or institutions-based explanations for why incumbent coalitions might be likely to form again, and we integrate these explanations into a coherent theoretical argument. We also claim that it is possible, to some extent, to distinguish these explanations empirically by taking into account the "historical context" of coalition bargaining. Using a comprehensive new data set on coalition bargaining in Europe, we show that coalitions, in general, are more likely to form if the parties comprising them have worked together in the recent past, and that incumbent coalitions are more likely to re-form if partners have not experienced a severe public conflict while in office together or suffered a recent setback at the polls. The incumbency advantage disappears completely if partners have become mired in conflict or have lost legislative seats (even after accounting for the impact of seat share on coalition size). Moreover, in certain circumstances, institutional rules that grant incumbents an advantage in coalition bargaining greatly enhance their ability to remain in office
Argument (complex analysis · Clientelism · Context (archaeology · Democracy · Economics · Government (linguistics · Legislature · Microeconomics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Preference · Set (abstract data type · Setback · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Political Influence and Corporate Strategies · Social Policy and Reform Studies
Policy as a Bargaining Outcome
Government identifiability and the number of parties
Policymaking activities of caretaker governments in Western Europe
Elite affective polarization and government formation
Changing the relationship status
Determinanten der Bildung nicht-etablierter Koalitionen in den deutschen Bundesländern, 1990–2016
The closer, the better – How perceived ideological proximity between parties affects the emergence of coalition preferences
Friendly fire? Negative campaigning among coalition partners
Fostering Bottom-Up Censorship From the Top-Down
Who Decides? Coalition Governance and Ministerial Discretion
The effects of the distribution of mortgage credit on the wage share
Can household debt influence income inequality? Evidence from Britain
Navigating complexity
How do new parties shape policymaking in coalition governments? Bill timing in the Czech Republic and Slovenia
Incumbency advantages, Prime Minister replacements and government formation
Normal Mode Copulas for Nonmonotonic Dependence
Do second-order elections produce second-order governments? How national and regional factors influence the composition of regional governments
Policy, office and votes
Gaining new insights by going local
Incumbency and patronage politics in Malaysia’s GE15
Regional Government Formation in Varying Multilevel Contexts
Reining in the Rascals
How Coalitions Shape Legislative Institutions in Parliamentary Democracies
Beyond Numbers
Marriages of Convenience
The implications of the European financial crisis and parties’ positions on European integration on the outcomes of government formation processes in Southern Europe
Who gets in? Ideology and government membership in Central and Eastern Europe
Now You See Me, Now You Don't
New parties, information uncertainty, and government formation
Explaining variation in coalition agreements
Oversized coalitions in Central and Eastern Europe
Coalition Mood in European Parliamentary Democracies
Understanding Pre-electoral Coalitions in Central and Eastern Europe
Cabinet Formation and Portfolio Distribution in European Multiparty Systems
The Company You Keep
Party System Institutionalization and Government Formation in new Democracies
Koalitionsbildung in deutschen Großstädten
Response to Martin and Vanberg
Theorie und Empirie der Vergleichenden Koalitionsforschung
Assembly dissolution powers and incumbency advantages in coalition formation
Do Voters’ Coalition Preferences Affect Government Formation
Do voters want their parties to be office- or policy-seekers in coalition negotiations
Dying, surviving death, and reincarnating
Toe the line, break the whip
Pre-electoral coalitions, familiarity, and delays in government formation
Rebuilding the coalition ship at sea
Weighting Parties and Coalitions
A Step in the Wrong Direction
Let’s Just Agree to Disagree
Commitment Problems in Coalitions
Coalition inclusion probabilities
Presidential Partisanship in Government Formation
A General Approach to Measuring Electoral Competitiveness for Parties and Governments
A Copula Approach to the Problem of Selection Bias in Models of Government Survival
Government formation under the shadow of a core party
Coalition formation at the local level
Ruling divided
From popularity to vulnerability
The political geography of government formation
Populist radical parties, pariahs, and coalition bargaining delays
Inter-factional conflicts and government formation
Duration of coalition formation in the German states
Choosing Coalition Partners in Belgian Local Government
Local coalition formation
The Advantage of Incumbents in Coalitional Bargaining
More than post-election cabinets
The fiscal benefits of repeated cooperation
Losers together? Grand coalitions in the EU member states
Faraway, so close
Controlling Uncertainty in Coalition Governments
Determinants of Government Membership at the Subnational Level
Sowing the Seeds of Love’? Determinants of Local Coalition Formation and Termination between the CDU and the Greens, 1994–2016
Party Competition and Government Formation in Germany
Gamson's Law and voters’ perceptions of portfolio allocation
Institutional veto players and cabinet formation
Portfolio allocation patterns and policy‐making effectiveness in minority coalition governments
How voters' perceptions of junior coalition partners depend on the prime minister's position
Voter expectations of government formation in coalition systems
Institutional constraints on cabinet formation
Causes and Electoral Consequences of Party Policy Shifts in Multiparty Elections
A Model of Endogenous Government Formation
Who “Wins”? Determining the Party of the Prime Minister
Perceptions of Partisan Ideologies
Does Collective Responsibility for Performance Alter Party Strategies? Policy-Seeking Parties in Proportional Systems
A New Approach to the Study of Parties Entering Government
Bargaining Complexity Beyond Arithmetic
Coalition Bargaining Duration in Multiparty Democracies
How does turnover affect turnout? Government alternation and voter participation in parliamentary democracies
Expected utility or learned familiarity? The formation of voters' coalition preferences
What drives rental votes? How coalitions signals facilitate strategic coalition voting
Winning & losing in coalition systems. A quasi-experimental study of the effect of coalition formation on satisfaction with democracy
What You See Is Not Always What You Get
The theory of political coalitions.
Policy, Office, or Votes?
Making and Breaking Governments
Cabinets and Coalition Bargaining
Analytical Politics
Institutions, Chance, and Choices
Comparative Democracy
Coalition government in Western Europe
Coalition Government Membership in West European Parliamentary Democracies
Aspects of Coalition Payoffs in European Parliamentary Democracies
Combining large-nand small-nstrategies
Influence without Confidence
Theories of coalition formation
Bargaining Delays in the Government Formation Process
Constraints on Cabinet Formation in Parliamentary Democracies
Allocating Coalition Payoffs by Conventional Norm
Government Formation in Parliamentary Democracies
A Bargaining Theory of Coalition Formation
The Duration of Cabinet Formation Processes in Western Multi-Party Democracies
Familiarity and Inertia in the Formation of Governing Coalitions in Parliamentary Democracies
Portfolio Salience and the Proportionality of Payoffs in Coalition Governments
When Far Apart Becomes Too Far Apart
Wasting Time? The Impact of Ideology and Size on Delay in Coalition Formation
If Winning Isn't Everything, Why Do They Keep Score? Consequences of Electoral Performance for Party Leaders
Does Terrorism Influence Domestic Politics? Coalition Formation and Terrorist Incidents
Theory of Games and Economic Behavior
Bargaining in Legislatures
Government Formation and Endogenous Parties
Elections, Coalitions, and Legislative Outcomes
A Spatial Bargaining Theory of Government Formation in Parliamentary Systems
The Role of Parties' Past Behavior in Coalition Formation
Demand Competition and Policy Compromise in Legislative Bargaining
| Unique citing works | 92 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 6,13 |
| Citation span | 2011 - 2026 (16) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 89 |