Democratization and civil war
Empirical evidence
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3917006 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Lars-Erik Cederman (0000-0002-8511-0617, Center for Comparative and International Studies ETH Zurich,, corresponding author), Simon Hug (0000-0002-7741-2201, Department of Political Science, University of Geneva & Centre for the Study of Civil War, Peace Research Institute, Oslo, PRIO), Lutz F Krebs (0000-0003-0451-7835, Center for Comparative and International Studies ETH Zurich) |
| Year | 2010 |
| Volume | 47 |
| Issue | 4 |
| Pages | 377-394 |
| Publication date | 2010-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Peace Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022343310368336 |
| OpenAlex | W2108277144 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 85 |
| References cited | 46 |
The hypothesis that democratization triggers political violence has been proposed repeatedly in the quantitative literature, but it remains controversial with respect to both interstate and civil wars. Current empirical research continues to be afflicted by methodological and data problems related to the measurement of democracy and the task of detecting changes in such scores. In order to gain further clarity into the link between democratization and civil war, the current study introduces a new period-finding algorithm that is able to detect periods of democratization and autocratization. This allows for a more flexible way of finding directional changes in governance indicators than is possible with the rigid lag structures commonly employed in previous studies. When regressed on various measures of civil-war onset, the indicator for the initiation of a period of democratization has a strong and robust effect on conflict even in the presence of static measures of regime type. The same applies to autocratization, but its impact is much more sudden than that of democratization. Moreover, we find that the democratization effect is limited to governmental rather than territorial conflicts. Further research will be needed to confirm these results in terms of the relevant causal mechanisms, especially in ethno-nationalist civil wars
CLARITY · Democracy · Democratization · Development economics · Economics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Spanish Civil War · Culture, Economy, and Development Studies · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Political Conflict and Governance
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| Unique citing works | 85 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 5,67 |
| Citation span | 2011 - 2026 (16) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 83 |