Winners and Losers in International Trade
The Effects on US Presidential Voting
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6271981 |
|---|---|
| Authors | J Bradford Jensen (American Political Science Association), Dennis P Quinn (0000-0002-0136-0898, American Political Science Association, corresponding author), Stephen Weymouth (0000-0002-4952-3692, American Political Science Association) |
| Year | 2017 |
| Volume | 71 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 423-457 |
| Publication date | 2017-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | International Organization (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0020-8183 • E-ISSN: 1531-5088 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s0020818317000194 |
| OpenAlex | W3022185663 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 91 |
| References cited | 74 |
International trade directly influences US presidential elections. We explore the electoral implications of the increasing tradability of services and the large US surplus in services trade. Our paper builds on prior work showing that job insecurity from import competition in manufacturing diminishes political support for incumbents. We construct novel measures of the tradability of an industry using establishment-level data covering nearly all US economic activity. We find increases in incumbent party vote shares in counties with large numbers of workers in high-skilled tradable services as well as goods, and decreases in counties with high employment in low-skilled manufacturing. Incumbent parties are particularly vulnerable to losing votes in swing states with many low-skilled manufacturing workers. In national-level models, we show for the first time that increasing imports (exports) are associated with decreasing (increasing) presidential incumbent vote shares. The national-level effects are large and politically consequential. We also find an Electoral College incentive to protect the manufacturing sector and to oppose trade agreements
Business · Competition (biology · Economics · Incentive · International economics · International trade · Labour economics · Market economy · Political science · Politics · Presidential system · Voting · Work (physics · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Global trade and economics · Political Influence and Corporate Strategies
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| Unique citing works | 91 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 10,11 |
| Citation span | 2017 - 2026 (10) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 90 |