Who Takes Risks
Daring and Caution in Foreign Policy Making
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6283702 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Paul A Kowert (0009-0002-2860-2057, Florida International University), Margaret G Hermann (Mershon Center, Ohio State University) |
| Year | 1997 |
| Volume | 41 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 611-637 |
| Publication date | 1997-10-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002797041005001 |
| OpenAlex | W1997430722 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 66 |
| References cited | 79 |
National leaders confront risky decisions on a regular basis. Although leaders may differ widely in their tolerance for risk, students of foreign policymaking lack compelling explanations for these differences. One of the few attempts to grapple with this problem holds that decision makers accept risks to avoid losses but refuse to take risks to make comparable gains. This tendency, embodied in prospect theory, is experimentally robust but consistently fails to predict the behavior of one third or more of the subjects. To investigate the contribution of individual differences to risk taking, the authors administered three questionnaires assessing risk propensity and two personality inventories (the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator and the Revised NEO Personality Inventory) to 126 subjects. The results identify strong personality predictors of generalized risk taking. Contrary to prospect theory, some people were especially willing to take risks to make gains, whereas others were particularly unlikely to take risks when facing potential losses. Statistical analyses lend support to a three-stage model of risk taking. The findings suggest that if students of international conflict want to understand risk taking, then they must consider not only how leaders frame conflicts but also the character of the leaders themselves
Actuarial science · Economics · Microeconomics · Personality · Prospect theory · Conflict Management and Negotiation · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Psychology · Social and Intergroup Psychology · Social Psychology
Thinking styles and decision making
Using Credible Advice to Overcome Framing Effects
Psychology and Constructivism in International Relations
Measuring Risk Literacy
Anxiety and Decision-Making
The influence of fear on risk taking
A Comprehensive Aspect-Level Approach to the Personality Micro-Foundations of Foreign Policy Attitudes
Personality traits and behaviour biases
CEO personality and language use in CSR reporting
Eveningness is Associated with Higher Risk-Taking, Independent of Sex and Personality
International Interventions and Normative Prudence as a ‘Forgotten’ Virtue of Statecraft
Presidential Personality
Presidential Risk Propensity and Intervention in Interstate Conflicts
An Estimate of Risk Aversion in the U.S. Electorate
Who Leads Matters
Individual differences in a switch from risk‐averse preferences for gains to risk‐seeking preferences for losses
Risk mitigation of post-earthquake fire in urban buildings
Personality and domain‐specific risk taking
Prospect theory and foreign policy decision-making
Development cooperation, the international–domestic nexus and the graduation dilemma
Lay Personality Theories in Interactive Decisions
Personality traits and the propensity to trust friends and strangers
Taking Matters into Their Own Hands
Risk preferences, uncertainty, and war
Personality and victimization in the Americas
Personality traits and strategic behavior
Propensity to trust and risk aversion
Is risk propensity unique from the big five factors of personality? A meta-analytic investigation
Achieving Efficiency Without Losing Accuracy
Faire Formeln
Risk attitudes and the propensity to vote for a new party in multi-party systems
Individual leadership and effective small state foreign policy
When risky decisions are not surprising
Risk Aversion in International Relations Theory
Inward Bound
How Prior Military Experience Influences the Future Militarized Behavior of Leaders
Bias in Text Analysis for International Relations Research
Domestic imperative of the Philippines’ South China Sea policy
Risk Orientations and Policy Frames
Women Running for Office Are Less Risk Averse than Men
Choosing the Risky Option
Risk Orientation, Risk Exposure, and Policy Opinions
Framing Political Risks
The Automaticity of Affect for Political Leaders, Groups, and Issues
Do Politicians Take Risks Like the Rest of Us? An Experimental Test of Prospect Theory Under MPs
The Prospects for Prospect Theory
Presidential Leadership Style and the Political Use of Force
Personality Traits and Political Ideology
Personality and Roots of Welfare State Support
The Implications of Framing Effects for Citizen Competence
Risk Attitudes and Independence Vote Choice
Emotion and the Framing of Risky Choice
Which personality fits personalized representation
The Psychological Ideas of Amos Tversky and Their Relevance for Political Science
Dissonance and decision-making mistakes in the age of risk
Presidential Risk Orientation and Force Employment Decisions
Military Intervention Decisions Regarding Humanitarian Crises
Prospect Theory and Coercive Bargaining
Studying Leaders and Military Conflict
Personality Traits and Foreign Policy Attitudes in German Public Opinion
Better the devil you know? Risk-taking, globalization and populism in Great Britain
Ambition without democracy
Prospect Theory and Political Science
Risk Attitudes and Political Participation
The Prejudiced Personality? Using the Big Five to Predict Susceptibility to Stereotyping Behavior
Political Preference Formation
International crises; insights from behavioral research.
In search of global patterns
Crisis Escalation War
On War
Between Peace and War
Psychology and Deterrence
Four ways five factors are not basic
Reasons for Framing Effects
Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions
Sensation seeking, risk appraisal, and risky behavior
Four ways five factors are basic
Personality Structure
Essence of Decision
Política entre las naciones
Cooperation under Anarchy
War and Reason
Report from Baghdad
Predicting more of the people more of the time
Methodological developments in personality research
Recurrent Personality Factors Based on Trait Ratings
Longitudinal stability of personality characteristics1
Reinterpreting the Myers‐Briggs Type Indicator From the Perspective of the Five‐Factor Model of Personality
Impulsiveness and Venturesomeness in Canadian Children
Impulsiveness and Venturesomeness
Risk-Taking
The Organizational Process and Bureaucratic Politics Paradigms
The Divided Decision-Maker
Leadership Style and Soviet Foreign Policy
Strategy, Risk and Personality in Coalition Politics. The Case of India
Conceptual and empirical analysis of some assumptions of an explicitly typological theory
Leaders, Leadership, and Flexibility
New Directions in Psychology III
To predict some of the people some of the time
Cooperation under the Security Dilemma
Misperception and the Causes of War
Rational Deterrence Theory
Rethinking and Reconceptualizing Risk in Foreign Policy Decision-Making
The Political Psychology of the Gulf War
Political Psychology
Political Implications of Loss Aversion
Prospect Theory in International Relations
Roosevelt and the Munich Crisis
The Clinton Presidency
Prospect Theory and Soviet Policy Towards Syria, 1966-1967
Prospect Theory and International Relations
Prospect Theory, Rational Choice, and International Relations
Explaining Foreign Policy Behavior Using the Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders
On the Theoretical Basis of a Measure of National Risk Attitudes
Rationalist explanations for war
Alliances and Asymmetry
Information processing, situation specificity, and the generality of risk-taking behavior
Adjective Check List scales and the five-factor model
Presidential personality
Behavioral manifestations of personality
Risk taking and personality
An Introduction to the Five-Factor Model and Its Applications
The structure of phenotypic personality traits
Assessment of risk taking behavior
Anomalies
Causal Explanation and Model Building in History, Economics, and the New Economic History
Consistency of the factorial structures of personality ratings from different sources
Rethinking Allison's Models
Contrasting Rational and Psychological Analyses of Political Choice
An Adaptive Model of Bureaucratic Politics
The War Trap Revisited
Causal Explanation and Model Building in History, Economics, and the New Economic History
Coordination versus Prisoners' Dilemma
| Unique citing works | 66 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,44 |
| Citation span | 1999 - 2024 (26) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 65 |