The Role of External Support in Civil War Termination
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6284129 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Katherine Sawyer (0000-0003-3430-5921, Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA, corresponding author), Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham (0000-0002-7495-5972, Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA), William Reed (0000-0002-4580-485X, Department of Government and Politics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA), William L Reed (University of Maryland, College Park) |
| Year | 2017 |
| Volume | 61 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Pages | 1174-1202 |
| Publication date | 2017-07-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002715600761 |
| OpenAlex | W2484493734 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 73 |
| References cited | 51 |
Many studies highlight the role that international intervention can play in prolonging civil wars. Yet, direct military intervention is just one way that external actors become involved in civil conflicts. In this article, a model is developed and analyzed that shows that when the government is unsure about how external support to the rebels will help rebel war-making capacity, it is the government that will continue fighting rather than settle the dispute. Different types of external support to rebels influence their fighting capacity differently, and some types of support create uncertainty about how new resources will translate into war-making ability. Specifically, more fungible sources of support (such as direct financial support) generate the most uncertainty for states as they attempt to estimate the effect of support to rebels on the conflict. Increased uncertainty inhibits bargained settlement, and disputes characterized by fungible external support are less likely to end than those where rebels receive different kinds of support. Empirical analyses demonstrate strong support for this argument; rebels that receive highly fungible external support (money and guns) are less likely to see conflict termination than rebels that do not
Argument (complex analysis · Economics · Government (linguistics · Intervention (counseling · Political economy · Political science · Settlement (finance · Spanish Civil War · International Development and Aid · Law · Medicine · Political Conflict and Governance · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East · Psychology
Mutually Hurting or Mutually Beneficial Stalemates? Alternative Logics Shaping Conflict Outcomes
Inside the proxy relationship
Strategic Territorial Power-Sharing and Multi-Party Bargaining in Civil Wars
Rebel financing and the commitment problem in civil conflict
Transnational Networks and Interstate Competition
A Meta-Analysis of the Impact of External Interventions on Conflict Intensity
Is There a Rebel Resource Curse? Ideological Appeals, Material Incentives, and the Success of Rebel Organizations
Vicious gift? Types of external support and child recruitment by rebel groups
Causal Pathways of Rebel Defection from Negotiated Settlements
Rethinking Proxy War Theory in IR
Forum
Does the Distribution of Ethnic Kin-Groups Explain Mediation in Territorial Conflicts
Targeting and Resistance
Changing Commitments
Proxy War’ - A Reconceptualisation
External State Support for Rebel Groups and the Occurrence of UN Peacekeeping Operations
Enforcing Openness
Forever wars
Rebel diplomacy and negotiated settlement in civil wars
(Re)ordering the Mediterranean
Rebels With Too Many Causes
Arming to fight
Target state responses to external support of rebel groups
External intelligence assistance and the recipient government’s violence against civilians
Teaching from experience
Female fighters and the fates of rebellions
Major power politics and non-violent resistance movements
International virtue signaling
Conditional cross-border effects of terrorism in China
Qui bono? Foreign military, economic, diplomatic interventions, and the termination of civil wars
Signaling restraint
Unraveling proxy wars
Religious Institutionalism
Speeding Up Success
Disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) after proxy wars
In the balance
Do International Interventions Prolong Civil Conflicts? The Effect of Ex Ante Expectations
Bias and balance in civil war mediation
A Call to Arms
The internationalization of intrastate conflict
Beyond confrontation
Altering Capabilities or Imposing Costs? Intervention Strategy and Civil War Outcomes
Determined diplomacy
Led Astray
Legacies of Violence
International Third Parties and the Implementation of Comprehensive Peace Agreements After Civil War
Foulweather Friends
The Social Origins of Rebellion
Indirect Governance at War
What Matters Is Who Supports You
Competitive Intervention, Protracted Conflict, and the Global Prevalence of Civil War
The Intractability of Islamist Insurgencies
Costly Concessions, Internally Divided Movements, and Strategic Repression
Penalizing Atrocities
To Intervene or Not to Intervene? Democratic Constraints on Third-Party Support in Civil Wars
External Intervention, Identity, and Civil War
Quick. But Impactful? United Nations Quick Impact Projects and Violence against Civilians in Civil War
Committed sponsors
The battle of Aleppo
Unholy alignment and boomerang civil conflicts
Third-party regime type and civil war duration
Tracking the rise of United States foreign military training
Motivations of diaspora support in homeland civil conflict
International support networks and the calculus of uprising
Power-sharing, conflict resolution, and the logic of pre-emptive defection
Central banks and civil war termination
The Sudanese imbroglio
Civil war mediation in the shadow of IGOs
Arms for education? External support and rebel social services
Gendered preferences
The build-up of coercive capacities
External support in armed conflicts
Intrinsic Social Incentives in State and Non-State Armed Groups
Ripe for resolution
Trends in Outside Support for Insurgent Movements
How Wars End
Rebels without Borders
Religion, terrorism and public goods
Regression Models and Life-Tables
The Logic of Violence in Civil War
Democracy and Redistribution
Population size, concentration, and civil war. A geographically disaggregated analysis
Where Do States Go? Strategy in Civil War Intervention
Danger Beyond Dyads
Aiding violence or peace? The impact of foreign aid on the risk of civil conflict in sub-Saharan Africa
US Counter–terrorism Options
Ripe for Resolution
Taking Time Seriously
Behind the Curve
Committing to Peace
Ethnonationalist Triads
Back to the Future
Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data
States, Insurgents, and Wartime Political Orders
Diplomacy and Other Forms of Intervention in Civil Wars
It Takes Two
Resources and the Information Problem in Rebel Recruitment
Recruitment and Allegiance
Third-party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts
The Moral Hazard of Humanitarian Intervention
Killing Time
Explaining External Support for Insurgent Groups
Bargaining, Enforcement, and International Cooperation
Ethnic Bargaining in the Shadow of Third-Party Intervention
War as a Commitment Problem
Bargaining Failures and Civil War
Foreign Aid, Democratization, and Civil Conflict
Duration Models and Proportional Hazards in Political Science
Actor Fragmentation and Civil War Bargaining
Bargaining, Bias and Peace Brokers
Measuring state capacity
Blocking resolution
Why Do Some Civil Wars Last So Much Longer than Others
The Inefficient Use of Power
Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816-1992
The Economic Origins of Democracy Reconsidered
Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War
| Unique citing works | 73 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 8,11 |
| Citation span | 2017 - 2026 (10) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 72 |