Arms Race Modeling
Causality Analysis and Model Specification
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6284347 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Stephen J Majeski (Department of Political Science Syracuse University), David Jones (0000-0001-8784-449X, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign), David L Jones (Department of Political Science University of Illinois) |
| Year | 1981 |
| Volume | 25 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 259-288 |
| Publication date | 1981-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/002200278102500203 |
| OpenAlex | W1991296831 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 51 |
| References cited | 21 |
The Richardson model has been employed frequently in the study of arm races, but seldom with empirically satisfactory results. For each of twelve pairs of arms expenditure series which are commonly proposed as arms races, we consider two potential sources for the failure of Richardson modeling efforts. First, they may not constitute arms races. Second, for those which do, the Richardson model specification may not be adequate. The methodology which enables us to explore these issues is "statistical causality analysis," as recently promulgated in time series research. Using this methodology, we find that arms expenditures are independent in a majority of the twelve cases examined. For those cases where interdependence is found, those which exhibit arms competition, the traditional Richardson model specification is not empirically supported. Finally, we provide a specific methodology for improved model specification derived from a general distributed lag model for any proposed arms race
Arms race · Causality (physics · Competition (biology · Econometrics · Economics · Operations research · Race (biology · Series (stratigraphy · Sociology · Specification · Statistics · Computer Science · Defense, Military, and Policy Studies · Economic Growth and Productivity · Mathematics · Monetary Policy and Economic Impact
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| Unique citing works | 51 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,16 |
| Citation span | 1982 - 2024 (43) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 51 |