Who benefits from the retrospective vote? Bringing in new parties
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6408084 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Daniel Bochsler (0000-0001-6423-5560, Nationalism Studies and Political Science Department, Central European University (CEU), Vienna, Austria, corresponding author), Miriam Hänni (0000-0001-8540-4044, Research and Development Division, Swiss Federal University for Vocational Education and Training, Zollikofen, Switzerland) |
| Year | 2024 |
| Volume | 47 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 303-328 |
| Publication date | 2024-02-23 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | West European Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0140-2382 • E-ISSN: 1743-9655 |
| Publisher | Informa UK Limited (PUBLISHER • GB) |
| DOI | 10.1080/01402382.2022.2145743 |
| OpenAlex | W4310172027 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 3 |
| References cited | 65 |
Democracies across the world have experienced the rise of new political parties. The dominant view of the model of (retrospective) economic voting implicitly assumes that the main beneficiary of electoral change is the established opposition. However, the rise of new political parties affects how we think of retrospective (economic) voting. This article presents a more nuanced picture of electoral change and considers when electoral turnover benefits established opposition parties, and when new political parties. The theoretical model introduces different macro-economic and macro-political motives for electoral turnover. Using a novel dataset on electoral change, covering 59 democracies worldwide, it is found that high levels of corruption discredit the entire political establishment, and promote the rise of new parties. The effect of economic hardship is more nuanced. Low economic growth mainly benefits the established opposition because voters look for an established alternative within the political system. Rising unemployment, by contrast, promotes the rise of new parties
Beneficiary · Democracy · Economics · Electoral system · General election · Opposition (politics) · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Voting · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Media Influence and Politics · Populism, Right-Wing Movements
Altering Party Systems
The Economic Vote in Transitional Democracies
The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism
Corruption, Ideology, and Populism
Are Mixed Electoral Systems the Best Choice for Central and Eastern Europe or the Reason for Defective Party Systems
The Perception of Corruption
Corruption and Electoral Support for New Political Parties in Central and Eastern Europe
Economic correlates of populist attitudes
Macroeconomics, economic crisis and electoral outcomes
Fleeing the centre
Party System Instability in Europe
Do Politics in Europe Benefit from Politicising Corruption
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The electoral consequences of the financial and economic crisis in Europe
How unstable? Volatility and the genuinely new parties in Eastern Europe
Extreme right‐wing voting in Western Europe
Hyperaccountability
Political polarization in retrospective economic evaluations during recessions and recoveries
Party System Volatility in Post-Communist Europe
Little is Known about Party System Volatility in Post-Communist Europe, but We Have Interesting New Methods and Data for Studying It
Contextual Factors and the Extreme Right Vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002
The Development of Stable Party Support
Democracy in crisis? The declining support for national democracy in E uropean countries, 2007–2011
Who votes for new parties? Economic voting, political ideology and populist attitudes
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Does Corruption Information Inspire the Fight or Quash the Hope? A Field Experiment in Mexico on Voter Turnout, Choice, and Party Identification
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Rooting Out Corruption or Rooting for Corruption? The Heterogeneous Electoral Consequences of Scandals
Politicians, Scandals, and Trust in Government
Party system competitiveness and corruption
Newness as a winning formula for new political parties
Party System Change
Extra- and within-system electoral volatility
Political Sequences and the Stabilization of Interparty Competition
Formation and Success of New Parties
Centrist anti-establishment parties and their protest voters
Stealth democracy and the support for new and challenger parties
Challenges to established parties
Political opportunity structures and right‐wing extremist party success
The three stages of the anti‐incumbency vote
Institutions, governmental performance and the rise of political newcomers
Public Support for Economic Reforms in Poland
The Varying Political Toll of Concerns About Corruption in Good Versus Bad Economic Times
Economics and Elections Revisited
Turning a Blind Eye
Antipartyism and Third-Party Vote Choice
The Declining Middle
The Electoral Consequences of Corruption
Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes
Retrospective Voting Reconsidered
Comparative Economic Voting
Corruption, Political Allegiances, and Attitudes Toward Government in Contemporary Democracies
Electoral Accountability and the Variety of Democratic Regimes
Party Systems in the Making
Revisiting Electoral Volatility in Post-Communist Countries
Lacking Information or Condoning Corruption
Economics, politics, and foreigners
Survival of the fittest. Comparing entry and exit among niche and mainstream parties in advanced democracies, 1945-2011
The economy, corruption, and the vote
Elections as instruments for punishing bad representatives and selecting good ones
The Effects of Charges of Corruption on Voting Behavior in Congressional Elections
The Political Impact of Economic Crisis in Latin America in the 1980s
The Power to Heal
| Unique citing works | 3 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3 |
| Citation span | 2025 - 2026 (2) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 3 |