International risk of food insecurity and mass mortality in a runaway global warming scenario
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9844705 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Catherine E Richards (0000-0002-0084-0734, University of Cambridge), H L Gauch (University of Cambridge), Julian M Allwood (0000-0003-0931-3831, University of Cambridge, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 150 |
| Pages | 103173 |
| Publication date | 2023-06-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Futures (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0016-3287 • E-ISSN: 1873-6378 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.futures.2023.103173 |
| OpenAlex | W4367299225 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 6 |
| References cited | 106 |
Climate and agriculture have played an interconnected role in the rise and fall of historical civilizations. Our modern food system, based on open-environment production and globalised supply chains, is vulnerable to a litany of abiotic and biotic stressors exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change. Despite this evidence, greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise. Current trajectories suggest global warming of ∼2.0–4.9 °C by 2100, however, a worst-case emissions scenario with rapid combustion of all available fossil fuels could cause a rise of ∼12 °C. Even if emissions decline, unprecedented atmospheric CO2-e concentrations risk triggering tipping points in climate system feedbacks that may see global warming exceed 8 °C. Yet, such speculative ‘runaway global warming’ has received minimal attention compared to mainstream low- to mid-range scenarios. This study builds on The Limits to Growth to provide new insights into the international risk of mass mortality due to food insecurity based on a higher-resolution illustration of World3’s ‘runaway global warming’ scenario (∼8–12 °C+). Our simulation indicates rapid decline in food production and unequal distribution of ∼6 billion deaths due to starvation by 2100. We highlight the importance of including high-resolution simulations of high-range global warming in climate change impact modelling to make well-informed decisions about climate change mitigation, resilience and adaptation
Agriculture · Climate change · Climatology · Economics · Food security · Geography · Global warming · Greenhouse gas · Natural resource economics · Tipping point (physics · Earth Systems and Cosmic Evolution · Ecology · Environmental Science · Environmental, Ecological, and Cultural Studies · Global Energy and Sustainability Research
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| Unique citing works | 6 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2026 (3) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 6 |