Re-thinking the role of exploratory scenarios for adaptive policymaking
An application for land use and transport planning
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 9847848 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Amor Ariza-Álvarez (0000-0001-9542-6271, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, corresponding author), Julio A Soria-Lara (0000-0002-2383-6332, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas), Francisco Aguilera-Benavente (0000-0001-5710-2057, Universidad de Alcalá) |
| Year | 2023 |
| Volume | 149 |
| Pages | 103139 |
| Publication date | 2023-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Futures (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0016-3287 • E-ISSN: 1873-6378 |
| Publisher | Elsevier BV (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.futures.2023.103139 |
| OpenAlex | W4327724356 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 48 |
While scenario-building has proven useful in situations marked by considerable uncertainty in the context of land use and transport policymaking, additional research is needed to develop adaptive and dynamic scenario-building schemes. To address this gap, the present paper conceptualises an adaptive scenario-building approach that would facilitate adaptive policy responses by using exploratory scenarios as intermediate tipping points. An empirical research design is also conducted following a participatory approach, with a case study of the Henares Corridor in the Metropolitan Area of Madrid, Spain. Three exploratory scenarios are assessed as experimental tipping points for the basic policy pathways initially adopted by regional and local governments. The use of such tipping points suggested different adaptive policy responses: (i) preserving policy responses when exploratory scenarios are strongly aligned with the basic pathways; and (ii) transforming policy responses when significant deviations are perceived between the exploratory scenarios and the basic pathways. The paper also discusses the real-life application potential of this adaptive scenario-building approach, further research steps, and future horizons for scenario-building
Adaptation (eye · Business · Citizen journalism · Civil engineering · Context (archaeology · Economics · Environmental economics · Environmental planning · Environmental resource management · Exploratory research · Geography · Land use · Metropolitan area · Scenario planning · Sociology · Computer Science · demographic modeling and climate adaptation · Engineering · Environmental Science · Marketing · Sustainability and Climate Change Governance · Urban Transport and Accessibility
Unsustainable Transport
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Addressing deep uncertainty using adaptive policies
Backcasting for sustainability
Adaptive policies, policy analysis, and policy-making
Transport futures
Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development
Adapt or Perish
The Coronavirus crisis
Implementation and calibration of a new irregular cellular automata-based model for local urban growth simulation
Opening out and closing down
Transitions to low carbon transport futures
Planning more for sustainable mobility
Participatory visioning in transport backcasting studies
Strategies to adapt to an uncertain climate change
Parking futures
Low-carbon futures and sustainable lifestyles
Pluralistic backcasting
Bounding the future
Collaborative backcasting for transport policy scenario building
An integrated framework for anticipating the future and dealing with uncertainty in policymaking
Stakeholders’ preferences for the future of transport in Europe
Improving the link between the futures field and policymaking
Participatory backcasting
Scenario types and techniques
Improving decision-making with scenario planning
Participatory visioning for building disruptive future scenarios for transport and land use planning
| Unique citing works | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1 |
| Citation span | 2024 - 2025 (2) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 2 |