Joseph Hotz
Biographic Data
| ID | 132691 |
|---|---|
| NAME | Joseph Hotz |
| GIVEN NAMES | Joseph |
| FAMILY NAME | Hotz |
| SIGNATURE | HOTZ J |
| AFFILIATIONS | Duke University |
| ORCID | 0000-0002-6958-3318 |
| VERIFIED | Yes |
| TOTAL WORKS | 21 |
| TOTAL CITATIONS | 104 |
| AUTHOR COUNT | 21 |
| EDITOR COUNT | 0 |
| FIRST PUBLICATION YEAR | 1988 |
| LATEST PUBLICATION YEAR | 2025 |
| H-INDEX | 6 |
The Association between the Volatility of Income and Life Expectancy in the United States
We examine the relationship between income volatility and life expectancy in mid-sized U.S. commuting zones between 2006 and 2014. We use a commercial dataset, InfoUSA, to measure income volatility which we link to estimates of life expectancy by gender, county, race, and income. We find that higher income volatility in a county is associated with lower life expectancy, but only at the bottom of the income distribution and primarily for non-Hispa…
Adult children's responsiveness to parental needs during the pandemic
ObjectivesGuided by the life-course principles of linked lives embedded in historical time and place, we investigated whether nonresident adult children provided financial and time assistance to parents in response to their needs during the COVID-19 pandemic.BackgroundAdult children are an important source of support for older adults during crises, yet their ability to help parents may have been constrained during the pandemic.MethodData were ext…
Racial–Ethnic Gaps in Pandemic-Related Economic Hardship
Results point to structural factors generating new racial-ethnic gaps in pandemic-related economic hardship among those approaching retirement (ages 55-74) that did not affect the oldest adults (ages 75+)
Changes across Cohorts in Wage Returns to Schooling and Early Work Experiences
This paper investigates the wage returns to schooling and actual early work experiences and how these returns have changed over the past 20 years. Using the NLSY surveys, we develop and estimate a dynamic model of the joint schooling and work decisions that young men make in early adulthood and quantify how they affect wages using a generalized Mincerian specification. Our results highlight the need to account for dynamic selection and changes in…
Disparities in vulnerability to complications from Covid-19 arising from disparities in preexisting conditions in the United States
Ex Ante Returns and Occupational Choice
Using data from Duke University undergraduates, we make three main contributions to the literature. First, we show that data on earnings beliefs and probabilities of choosing particular occupations are highly informative of future earnings and occupations. Second, we show how beliefs data can be used to recover ex ante treatment effects and their relationship with individual choices. We find large differences in expected earnings across occupatio…
Spatial Distance Between Parents and Adult Children in the United States
ObjectiveThis brief report presents contemporary national estimates of the spatial distance between residences of parents and adult children in the United States, including distance to one's nearest parent or adult child and whether one lives near all of their parents and adult children.BackgroundThe most recent national estimates of parent-child spatial proximity come from data for the early 1990s. Moreover, research has rarely assessed the spat…
Stepfamily Structure and Transfers Between Generations in U.S. Families
Unstable couple relationships and high rates of repartnering have increased the share of U.S. families with stepkin. Yet data on stepfamily structure are from earlier periods, include only coresident stepkin, or cover only older adults. In this study, we use new data on family structure and transfers in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to describe the prevalence and numbers of stepparents and stepchildren for adults of all ages and to ch…
Child Care and Child Care Policy
We analyze policies that support and affect the provision and costs of child care in the United States. These policies are motivated by at least three objectives: (1) improving the cognitive and social development of young children, (2) facilitating maternal employment, and (3) alleviating poverty. We summarize this policy landscape and the evidence on the effects they have on the development of children and parents. We provide a summary of the u…
Strategic parenting, birth order, and school performance
Hispanics in the U.S. Labor Market
The Hispanic population has emerged at the largest ethnic/racial minority in the United States, and has also become a major political constituency. Consequently, it is important to gauge the extent to which they have been integrated into various societal institutions. One important institution is the US labor market.The research contained in the present volume assess a number of issues about how well Hispanics are integrated into the US labor mar…
Modeling college major choices using elicited measures of expectations and counterfactuals
Dealing with limited overlap in estimation of average treatment effects
Estimation of average treatment effects under unconfounded or ignorable treatment assignment is often hampered by lack of overlap in the covariate distributions between treatment groups. This lack of overlap can lead to imprecise estimates, and can make commonly used estimators sensitive to the choice of specification. In such cases researchers have often used ad hoc methods for trimming the sample. We develop a systematic approach to addressing …
Nonparametric Tests for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity
In this paper we develop two nonparametric tests of treatment effect heterogeneity. The first test is for the null hypothesis that the treatment has a zero average effect for all subpopulations defined by covariates. The second test is for the null hypothesis that the average effect conditional on the covariates is identical for all subpopulations, that is, that there is no heterogeneity in average treatment effects by covariates. We derive tests…
Games Parents and Adolescents Play
This paper examines parental reputation formation in intra-familial interactions. In a repeated two-stage game, children decide whether to drop out of high school or daughters decide whether to have births as teens and parents then decide whether to provide support to their children beyond age 18. Drawing on Milgrom and Roberts (1982) and Kreps and Wilson (1982), we show that, under certain conditions, parents have the incentive to penalize older…
Teenage Childbearing and Its Life Cycle Consequences
We exploit a “natural experiment” associated with human reproduction to identify the causal effect of teen childbearing on the socioeconomic attainment of teen mothers. We exploit the fact that some women who become pregnant experience a miscarriage and do not have a live birth. Using miscarriages an instrumental variable, we estimate the effect of teen mothers not delaying their childbearing on their subsequent attainment. We find that many of t…
Explaining Family Change and Variation
Twenty years ago, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) issued a request for proposals that resulted in the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH), a unique survey valuable to a wide range of family scholars. This paper describes the efforts of an interdisciplinary group of family demographers to build on the progress enabled by the NSFH and many other theoretical and methodological innovations. Our work,…
Are There Returns to the Wages of Young Men from Working While in School
This paper examines the effects of work experience acquired while youth were in high school (and college) on young men's wage rates. Previous studies have found sizeable and persistent rates of return to working while enrolled in school, especially high school, on subsequent wage growth. We evaluate the extent to which these estimates represent causal effects by assessing the robustness of prior findings to controls for unobserved heterogeneity a…
Chapter 7 The economics of fertility in developed countries
Choosing among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods for Estimating the Impact of Social Programs
The recent literature on evaluating manpower training programs demonstrates that alternative nonexperimental estimators of the same program produce an array of estimates of program impact. These findings have led to the call for experiments to be used to perform credible program evaluations. Missing in all of the recent pessimistic analyses of nonexperimental methods is any systematic discussion of how to choose among competing estimators. This a…
An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply
This paper examines household fertility and female labor supply over the life cycle. We investigate how maternal time inputs, market expenditures on offspring, as well as the benefits they yield their parents, vary with ages of offspring, and influence female labor supply and contraceptive behavior. Our econometric framework combines a female labor\nsupply model and a contraceptive choice index function. It also accounts for the fact that concept…
Stepfamily Structure and Transfers Between Generations in U.S. Families
Unstable couple relationships and high rates of repartnering have increased the share of U.S. families with stepkin. Yet data on stepfamily structure are from earlier periods, include only coresident stepkin, or cover only older adults. In this study, we use new data on family structure and transfers in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to describe the prevalence and numbers of stepparents and stepchildren for adults of all ages and to ch…
Spatial Distance Between Parents and Adult Children in the United States
ObjectiveThis brief report presents contemporary national estimates of the spatial distance between residences of parents and adult children in the United States, including distance to one's nearest parent or adult child and whether one lives near all of their parents and adult children.BackgroundThe most recent national estimates of parent-child spatial proximity come from data for the early 1990s. Moreover, research has rarely assessed the spat…
Explaining Family Change and Variation
Twenty years ago, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) issued a request for proposals that resulted in the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH), a unique survey valuable to a wide range of family scholars. This paper describes the efforts of an interdisciplinary group of family demographers to build on the progress enabled by the NSFH and many other theoretical and methodological innovations. Our work,…
Strategic parenting, birth order, and school performance
Games Parents and Adolescents Play
This paper examines parental reputation formation in intra-familial interactions. In a repeated two-stage game, children decide whether to drop out of high school or daughters decide whether to have births as teens and parents then decide whether to provide support to their children beyond age 18. Drawing on Milgrom and Roberts (1982) and Kreps and Wilson (1982), we show that, under certain conditions, parents have the incentive to penalize older…
Disparities in vulnerability to complications from Covid-19 arising from disparities in preexisting conditions in the United States
Ex Ante Returns and Occupational Choice
Using data from Duke University undergraduates, we make three main contributions to the literature. First, we show that data on earnings beliefs and probabilities of choosing particular occupations are highly informative of future earnings and occupations. Second, we show how beliefs data can be used to recover ex ante treatment effects and their relationship with individual choices. We find large differences in expected earnings across occupatio…
Child Care and Child Care Policy
We analyze policies that support and affect the provision and costs of child care in the United States. These policies are motivated by at least three objectives: (1) improving the cognitive and social development of young children, (2) facilitating maternal employment, and (3) alleviating poverty. We summarize this policy landscape and the evidence on the effects they have on the development of children and parents. We provide a summary of the u…
An Empirical Analysis of Life Cycle Fertility and Female Labor Supply
This paper examines household fertility and female labor supply over the life cycle. We investigate how maternal time inputs, market expenditures on offspring, as well as the benefits they yield their parents, vary with ages of offspring, and influence female labor supply and contraceptive behavior. Our econometric framework combines a female labor\nsupply model and a contraceptive choice index function. It also accounts for the fact that concept…
Choosing among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods for Estimating the Impact of Social Programs
The recent literature on evaluating manpower training programs demonstrates that alternative nonexperimental estimators of the same program produce an array of estimates of program impact. These findings have led to the call for experiments to be used to perform credible program evaluations. Missing in all of the recent pessimistic analyses of nonexperimental methods is any systematic discussion of how to choose among competing estimators. This a…
Chapter 7 The economics of fertility in developed countries
Are There Returns to the Wages of Young Men from Working While in School
This paper examines the effects of work experience acquired while youth were in high school (and college) on young men's wage rates. Previous studies have found sizeable and persistent rates of return to working while enrolled in school, especially high school, on subsequent wage growth. We evaluate the extent to which these estimates represent causal effects by assessing the robustness of prior findings to controls for unobserved heterogeneity a…
Teenage Childbearing and Its Life Cycle Consequences
We exploit a “natural experiment” associated with human reproduction to identify the causal effect of teen childbearing on the socioeconomic attainment of teen mothers. We exploit the fact that some women who become pregnant experience a miscarriage and do not have a live birth. Using miscarriages an instrumental variable, we estimate the effect of teen mothers not delaying their childbearing on their subsequent attainment. We find that many of t…
Explaining Family Change and Variation
Twenty years ago, the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) issued a request for proposals that resulted in the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH), a unique survey valuable to a wide range of family scholars. This paper describes the efforts of an interdisciplinary group of family demographers to build on the progress enabled by the NSFH and many other theoretical and methodological innovations. Our work,…
Nonparametric Tests for Treatment Effect Heterogeneity
In this paper we develop two nonparametric tests of treatment effect heterogeneity. The first test is for the null hypothesis that the treatment has a zero average effect for all subpopulations defined by covariates. The second test is for the null hypothesis that the average effect conditional on the covariates is identical for all subpopulations, that is, that there is no heterogeneity in average treatment effects by covariates. We derive tests…
Games Parents and Adolescents Play
This paper examines parental reputation formation in intra-familial interactions. In a repeated two-stage game, children decide whether to drop out of high school or daughters decide whether to have births as teens and parents then decide whether to provide support to their children beyond age 18. Drawing on Milgrom and Roberts (1982) and Kreps and Wilson (1982), we show that, under certain conditions, parents have the incentive to penalize older…
Dealing with limited overlap in estimation of average treatment effects
Estimation of average treatment effects under unconfounded or ignorable treatment assignment is often hampered by lack of overlap in the covariate distributions between treatment groups. This lack of overlap can lead to imprecise estimates, and can make commonly used estimators sensitive to the choice of specification. In such cases researchers have often used ad hoc methods for trimming the sample. We develop a systematic approach to addressing …
Modeling college major choices using elicited measures of expectations and counterfactuals
Hispanics in the U.S. Labor Market
The Hispanic population has emerged at the largest ethnic/racial minority in the United States, and has also become a major political constituency. Consequently, it is important to gauge the extent to which they have been integrated into various societal institutions. One important institution is the US labor market.The research contained in the present volume assess a number of issues about how well Hispanics are integrated into the US labor mar…
Strategic parenting, birth order, and school performance
Stepfamily Structure and Transfers Between Generations in U.S. Families
Unstable couple relationships and high rates of repartnering have increased the share of U.S. families with stepkin. Yet data on stepfamily structure are from earlier periods, include only coresident stepkin, or cover only older adults. In this study, we use new data on family structure and transfers in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to describe the prevalence and numbers of stepparents and stepchildren for adults of all ages and to ch…
Child Care and Child Care Policy
We analyze policies that support and affect the provision and costs of child care in the United States. These policies are motivated by at least three objectives: (1) improving the cognitive and social development of young children, (2) facilitating maternal employment, and (3) alleviating poverty. We summarize this policy landscape and the evidence on the effects they have on the development of children and parents. We provide a summary of the u…
Disparities in vulnerability to complications from Covid-19 arising from disparities in preexisting conditions in the United States
Ex Ante Returns and Occupational Choice
Using data from Duke University undergraduates, we make three main contributions to the literature. First, we show that data on earnings beliefs and probabilities of choosing particular occupations are highly informative of future earnings and occupations. Second, we show how beliefs data can be used to recover ex ante treatment effects and their relationship with individual choices. We find large differences in expected earnings across occupatio…
Spatial Distance Between Parents and Adult Children in the United States
ObjectiveThis brief report presents contemporary national estimates of the spatial distance between residences of parents and adult children in the United States, including distance to one's nearest parent or adult child and whether one lives near all of their parents and adult children.BackgroundThe most recent national estimates of parent-child spatial proximity come from data for the early 1990s. Moreover, research has rarely assessed the spat…
Changes across Cohorts in Wage Returns to Schooling and Early Work Experiences
This paper investigates the wage returns to schooling and actual early work experiences and how these returns have changed over the past 20 years. Using the NLSY surveys, we develop and estimate a dynamic model of the joint schooling and work decisions that young men make in early adulthood and quantify how they affect wages using a generalized Mincerian specification. Our results highlight the need to account for dynamic selection and changes in…
Racial–Ethnic Gaps in Pandemic-Related Economic Hardship
Results point to structural factors generating new racial-ethnic gaps in pandemic-related economic hardship among those approaching retirement (ages 55-74) that did not affect the oldest adults (ages 75+)
The Association between the Volatility of Income and Life Expectancy in the United States
We examine the relationship between income volatility and life expectancy in mid-sized U.S. commuting zones between 2006 and 2014. We use a commercial dataset, InfoUSA, to measure income volatility which we link to estimates of life expectancy by gender, county, race, and income. We find that higher income volatility in a county is associated with lower life expectancy, but only at the bottom of the income distribution and primarily for non-Hispa…
Adult children's responsiveness to parental needs during the pandemic
ObjectivesGuided by the life-course principles of linked lives embedded in historical time and place, we investigated whether nonresident adult children provided financial and time assistance to parents in response to their needs during the COVID-19 pandemic.BackgroundAdult children are an important source of support for older adults during crises, yet their ability to help parents may have been constrained during the pandemic.MethodData were ext…
Economics (15 works) · Psychology (13 works) · Demographic economics (10 works) · Sociology (10 works) · Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics (9 works) · Demography (8 works) · Demography (6 works) · Developmental psychology (6 works) · Population (6 works) · Computer Science (5 works)