Authoritarian Rallying as Reputational Cascade? Evidence from Putin's Popularity Surge after Crimea
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 3234802 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Henry E Hale (0000-0002-2956-8033, George Washington University, corresponding author) |
| Year | 2022 |
| Volume | 116 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 580-594 |
| Publication date | 2022-05-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | American Political Science Review (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943 |
| Publisher | Cambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1017/s0003055421001052 |
| OpenAlex | W3204109641 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 26 |
| References cited | 55 |
When international conflict causes an authoritarian leader's popularity to soar, extant theories lead us to treat such "rallying" as sincere preference change, the product of surging patriotism or cowed media. This study advances a theory of less-than-fully sincere rallying more appropriate for nondemocratic settings, characterizing it as at least partly reflecting cascading dissembling driven by social desirability concerns. The identification strategy combines a rare nationally representative rally-spanning panel survey with a list experiment and econometric analysis. This establishes that three quarters of those who rallied to Putin after Russia annexed Crimea were engaging in at least some form of dissembling and that this rallying developed as a rapid cascade, with social media joining television in fueling perceptions this was socially desirable
Authoritarianism · Democracy · Patriotism · Political science · Politics · Popularity · Soar · Sociology · Computer Science · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Media Influence and Politics · Opinion Dynamics and Social Influence
The ‘rally’ falters
How (Not) to Hide Your Data
A New Concept of “Kim Jong Un Partizan” Discourse and Authoritarian Durability in North Korea
Patriotism and National Symbols in Russian and Ukrainian Elections
Priming for War
Constructing a Sustainable Just Peace
Soft power beyond liberal democracy. Authoritarian attraction, legitimacy and diffusion
The limits of AI for authoritarian control
Multinational in Form, Russkii in Content
Floods, terrorist attacks and the Covid-19 pandemic
The improbable path to peace through domestic political change in Russia
Supporting the War in Ukraine Compared to the Annexation of Crimea in Russia’s Bureaucratic Texts
Is Putin’s popularity (still) real? A cautionary note on using list experiments to measure popularity in authoritarian regimes
Rallying around the EU flag
Fear of punishment as a driver of survey misreporting and item non-response in Russia and its neighbors
Ukraine at war
Political Stigma and Preference Falsification
Social Norm Change, Political Symbols, and Expression of Stigmatized Preferences
Survey research in Russia
Harnessing Distrust
Geosocietal Support for Democracy
Mirrors and Mosaics
Norms of Democracy, Staged Democrats, and Supply of Exclusionary Ideology
Playing the sycophant card
Support for Vladimir Putin in Russia's neighbors
Endogenous Popularity
The social desirability variable in personality assessment and research
In Time of War
Revolution Stalled
From Extreme to Mainstream
Social Media and Protest Participation
The Functions of Social Conflict
Electoral Authoritarianism
Putin as Celebrity and Cultural Icon
Media and Political Persuasion
Becoming banal
Putin's Uneasy Return and Hybrid Regime Stability
Private Truths, Public Lies
Availability Cascades and Risk Regulation
A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change as Informational Cascades
War, Presidents and Public Opinion
Now out of Never
Proposal of a four-dimensional model of social response
Behind the Curve
Internalization versus compliance
War of words
Assessing the President
The Dynamics of Informational Cascades
Who Rallies? The Anatomy of a Rally Event
Toward an Understanding of "Rally" Effects
Joining and Leaving the Rally
Guns to butter
The Illusion of Choice in Democratic Politics
A Defining Presidential Moment
Statistical Analysis of List Experiments
Corrupting the Cyber-Commons
Putinism Under Siege
The Influence of Domestic and International Politics on the President's Use of Force
Patriotism or Opinion Leadership
Foreign Targets and Diversionary Conflict
The ever‐shifting psychological foundations of democratic theory
It's the Stability, Stupid! How the Quest to Restore Order After the Soviet Collapse Shaped Russian Popular Opinion
Agreeable Authoritarians
The Causes of War and the Conditions of Peace
An Empirical Validation Study of Popular Survey Methodologies for Sensitive Questions
Presidential Popularity in a Hybrid Regime
Memory for Past Vote
Online Social Media and Political Awareness in Authoritarian Regimes
The nature of social influence in groupthink
Anatomy of a Rally Effect
"Rally Round the Flag" Events for Presidential Approval Research
Who Defects? Unpacking a Defection Cascade from Russia's Dominant Party 2008-12
Threshold Models of Collective Behavior
| Unique citing works | 26 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 6,5 |
| Citation span | 2022 - 2026 (5) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 26 |