Self-prediction
Exploring the parameters of accuracy
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6203689 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Timothy M Osberg (0000-0002-6651-3920, Niagara University), J Sidney Shrauger (University at Buffalo, State University of New York) |
| Year | 1986 |
| Volume | 51 |
| Issue | 5 |
| Pages | 1044-1057 |
| Publication date | 1986-11-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3514 • E-ISSN: 1939-1315 |
| Publisher | American Psychological Association (APA) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1037//0022-3514.51.5.1044 |
| OpenAlex | W4251196214 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 40 |
| References cited | 49 |
We conducted four studies to explore people's self-prediction processes. Study I examined the types of information people report using when making self-predictions. Five categories of information were determined. Studies 2 and 3 examined the relation between the use of different categories of information and self-prediction accuracy. Using correlational and experimental methodologies, these two studies demonstrated the utility of attending to personal base rate and personal disposition information in formulating accurate self-predictions. Individual differences in accuracy as a func-tion of public and private self-consciousness were also evident. Study 4 found that more certain self-predictions, as well as predictions that were distinct from what was expected for the average individ-ual, were more accurate. Overall, the findings suggest the importance of attending to individuating information in formulating accurate self-predictions. The traditional model of psychological assessment empha-sizes the use of trained evaluators to formulate predictions about a person on the basis of testing data, historical infor-mation, and clinical judgment. To date, however, there has been much controversy and debate over the utility of efforts in the
Cognitive psychology · Disposition · Personality · Situational ethics · Applied Psychology · Behavioral Health and Interventions · Cognitive and psychological constructs research · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Mental Health Research Topics · Psychology · Social Psychology
Enough
Accuracy and artifact
Heuristics and Biases
Norm theory
The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
Individual differences in reasoning
Clinical Versus Actuarial Judgment
Support theory
The hot hand in basketball
Affective Forecasting
Self-Regulation of Cognitive Inference and Decision Processes
Representativeness Revisited
Illusion of Control Relative to Chance Outcomes
Illusion of Control Relative to Chance Outcomes
Risk assessment tool floundering? Let's ask the client to self-predict
A value-congruent bias in the forgiveness forecasts of religious people
Complex Social Consequences of Self-Knowledge
Predicting a changing taste
Ambiguity and Self-Evaluation
The Affect Heuristic
Blackwell Handbook of Social Psychology
Ambiguity and self-evaluation
Overconfident prediction of future actions and outcomes by self and others
Why and when peer prediction is superior to self-prediction
"Exploring the "planning fallacy
How alike is it versus how likely is it
Accuracy, error, and bias in predictions for real versus hypothetical events
Overconfidence, base rates and outcome positivity/negativity of predicted events
Self-concept Clarity's Role in Self–Other Agreement and the Accuracy of Behavioral Prediction
Grounded in science or based on hype? an analysis of neuro-associative conditioningtm
Predictive Accuracy of Rural Physicians' Stated Retention Plans
Substituting the forest for the trees
Cultural variations in optimistic and pessimistic bias
The antecedents and consequences of interpersonal forgiveness
It's About Time
Do as I Say, Don’t Do as I Do
Self-predictions overweight strength of current intentions
From self-prediction to self-defeat
The nonconsciousness of self-consciousness
The Use of Advance Directives in End-of-life Decision Making
Impression management
Basic Content Analysis
Self-efficacy
Genesis of popular but erroneous psychodiagnostic observations.
The accuracy of self-reported weights
On predicting some of the people some of the time
Direct Experience And Attitude-Behavior Consistency
Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement.
On the psychology of prediction.
Telling more than we can know
Public and private self-consciousness
The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings
Self‐focused attention and self‐report validity 1
Self-efficacy
The future of clinical assessment
On the future of personality measurement
On the future of personality measurement
The future of clinical assessment
Consistency, self-consciousness, and the predictive validity of typical and maximal personality measures
Sense, nonsense, and the use of personality measures
Self-consciousness, self-report of aggressiveness, and aggression
Remembering information related to one's self
Information acquisition and attribution processes
Aggregation, moderator variables, and the validity of personality tests
Sources of behavioral consistency
On the consistency between attitudes and behavior
Disentangling behavioral intention and behavioral expectation
Attitudinal qualities relating to the strength of the attitude-behavior relationship
The processes of causal attribution
Approaches to personality inventory construction
Moderator variables and different types of predictability
On the self-erasing nature of errors of prediction
Attribution and the psychology of prediction
Self-schemas and gender
Self-schemata and processing information about the self
Testing the Self-Perception Explanation of Dissonance Phenomena
Self-serving biases in the attribution process
Salience of ethnicity in the spontaneous self-concept as a function of one's ethnic distinctiveness in the social environment
Effects of public and private self-consciousness on the public expression of personal beliefs
The need for cognition
The actor and the observer
The relative accuracy of self-predictions and judgments by others in psychological assessment
Some dangers of using personality questionnaires to study personality
| Unique citing works | 40 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 0,98 |
| Citation span | 1985 - 2020 (36) |
| Citation velocity | historical |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 38 |