Regime Change Cascades

What We Have Learned from the 1848 Revolutions to the 2011 Arab Uprisings

Bibliographic Data

ID6233052
AuthorsHenry E Hale (0000-0002-2956-8033, George Washington University, corresponding author)
Year2013
Volume16
Issue1
Pages331-353
Publication date2013-05-11
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessNo
TypeARTICLE
VenueAnnual Review of Political Science (BOOK_SERIES)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1094-2939 • E-ISSN: 1545-1577
PublisherAnnual Reviews (PUBLISHER • US)
DOI10.1146/annurev-polisci-032211-212204
OpenAlexW2131345842
LanguageEN
Citations received77
References cited90

Works on the 1848 revolutions, 1989 collapse of European communism, 1998–2005 postcommunist color revolutions, and 2011 Arab uprisings frequently cross-reference each other, implying what is called here the concept of a “regime change cascade.” Research on these “Big Four” events shows that cascading can occur in protest calling for regime change as well as revolution in the name of regime change, but these rarely lead to actual regime change. Regime change cascades can occur through demonstration effects and active mediation, although common external causes and contemporaneous domestic triggers can cause events outwardly resembling them. Regime change cascades tend to occur where (a) there exists a common frame of political reference, (b) unpopular leaderships are becoming lame ducks; (c) elites lack other focal points for coordinated defection, and (d) structural conditions supporting a new regime type are in place. Cascading to hybrid regimes or autocracy may be more likely than cascading to democracy

Autocracy · Communism · Democracy · Development economics · Economics · Mediation · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Regime change · Sociology · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Political Influence and Corporate Strategies · Social Policy and Reform Studies

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