The Marginal and Time-Varying Effect of Public Approval on Presidential Success in Congress
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6388641 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Jon R Bond (0000-0002-1686-8985), Richard Fleisher, B Dan Wood |
| Year | 2003 |
| Volume | 65 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Pages | 92-110 |
| Publication date | 2003-02-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | The Journal of Politics (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3816 • E-ISSN: 1468-2508 |
| Publisher | University of Chicago Press (PUBLISHER • US) |
| DOI | 10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00005 |
| OpenAlex | W2159744011 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 61 |
| References cited | 31 |
We analyze the relationship between public approval and presidential success in Congress using time-varying parameter regression methods. Cues from constituency, ideology, and party dominate congressional vote choice, so the effect of public approval of the president is typically marginal. Because the strength of these primary cues varies through time, the effect of public approval on presidential success should also be time varying. Analysis of conflictual roll-call votes from 1953 through 2000 using the time-varying Kalman filter reveals that the effect of public approval on presidential success is marginal and changing through time. These models assume that the time variation is a stochastic process, and finding time-varying relationships may indicate model misspecification. Our theory, however, suggests that this time variation depends on a systematic factor—partisanship. A better specified model that allows systematic parameter variation confirms that the level of partisanship conditions the relationship between public approval and presidential success in Congress
Econometrics · Economics · Ideology · Political science · Politics · Presidential system · Public economics · Variation (astronomy · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Media Influence and Politics · School Choice and Performance
Elections and Voting
The Psychological Underpinnings of Political Behavior
Pooled Cross-Sectional and Time Series Analyses, in Political Science
The Particularistic President
The Myth of Presidential Representation
Political Leverage and Legislative Strategy
Life Ain’t Easy for a President Named Barack”
International Crisis Termination and Presidential Approval
The President, the Senate, and the Costs of Internationalism
The impact of agency failure on executive approval
Whose Approval Matters? Reelection, Constituency Approval, and Senate Support for President George W. Bush
Politics or Policy? How Rhetoric Matters to Presidential Leadership of Congress
Presidential “Pitches” and White House Pressure
Source Material
Constituent Approval, Electoral Marginality, and Congressional Support for the President
Substance versus Style
Agreeable Administrators? Analyzing the Public Positions of Cabinet Secretaries and Presidents
Pontificating About Moe's Pontifications
Prior Experience Predicts Presidential Performance
Contemporary Presidency
Public Opinion Toward Presidential Power
The Contemporary Presidency
The Importance of Policy Scope to Presidential Success in Congress
Agency Input as a Policy-Making Tool
How Policy Conditions the Impact of Presidential Speeches on Legislative Success
A Philippine Strongman's Legislative and Constitutional Reforms Legacy
A Continuous-Time, Latent-Variable Model of Time Series Data
Comportamiento Diacrónico Del Congreso en Chile
Las distintas caras del presidencialismo
Popular Presidents Can Affect Congressional Attention, for a Little While
The President’s Role in the Partisan Congressional Arena
Congressional Bargaining in Presidential Time
Explaining the President's Issue Based Liberalism
The Fulfillment of Presidential Promises Made While in Office. The Case of Chile, 1990–2017
Descriptive Representation, Judicial Nominations, and Perceptions of Presidential Accomplishment
Placing Presidential-Congressional Relations in Context
Presidential negative partisanship
Constituent Approval and Presidential Support
Presidential Defense
The Cost of Doing Business
Motivated Reasoning, Public Opinion, and Presidential Approval
Position Taking on the President’s Agenda
Divided We Quarrel
Institutions and the Legislative Success of ‘Strong’ Presidents
Foreign Policy Appointments
Are governments paying a price for austerity? Fiscal consolidations reduce government approval
What motivates a legislator to sponsor a bill that will never become law? The case of members of the Chilean Chamber of Deputies, 1990–2014
Party Responsiveness to the Collective Judgment of the Electorate
Rational Learners or Impervious Partisans? Economic News and Partisan Bias in Economic Perceptions
Political Institutions and the Legislative Success of Brazilian Presidents
Presidential Approval and the Inherited Economy
Building Alliances or Rallying the Base
Public and Partisan Opinions of the Speaker of the House
The Politics of Presidential Speeches
And Presidential Support in the 107th Congress
State of the Union Addresses and the President's Legislative Success
Presidential Speeches Amid a More Centralized and Unified Congress
Everybody Loves a Winner
Enduring Rivals
From election day to presidential approval
A Batalha Pela Opinião Pública E O Impeachment De Dilma Rousseff
Congressmen's Voting Decisions
Why Parties?
Spurious regressions in econometrics
Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics.
A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction Problems
A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix
Home Style
Evidence of Increasing Polarization among Ordinary Citizens
Congress
Constituencies and Leaders in Congress
Follow the Leader
Public Opinion and Presidential Support
Follow the Leader
Partisan Voting Patterns in the U. S. Senate, 1877-1986
The Decline of Party in the U. S. House of Representatives, 1887-1968
New Evidence Undercutting the Linkage of Approval with Presidential Support and Influence
The President in a More Partisan Legislative Arena
State-Level Presidential Approval and Senatorial Support
Weak Theories and Parameter Instability
Passing the President's Program
Aligning Tests with Theory
The Strategic Configuration, Personal Influence, and Presidential Power in Congress
Promise and Performance
Presidential Popularity and Congressional Voting
| Unique citing works | 61 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,54 |
| Citation span | 2002 - 2026 (25) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 61 |