Global rangeland production systems and livelihoods at threat under climate change and variability

Bibliographic Data

ID15544940
AuthorsCécile Godde (0000-0002-7165-3012, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, corresponding author), Randall B Boone (0000-0003-3362-2976, Colorado State University), Andrew Ash (0000-0001-9156-6664, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), Katharina Waha (0000-0002-8631-8639, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), Lindsey Sloat (0000-0002-2986-9725, University of California, Irvine), Philip K Thornton (0000-0002-1854-0182, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security), Mario Herrero (0000-0002-7741-5090, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
Year2020
Volume15
Issue4
Pages044021-044021
Publication date2020-02-07
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueEnvironmental Research Letters (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 1748-9326 • E-ISSN: 1748-9326
PublisherIOP Publishing (PUBLISHER • GB)
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab7395
OpenAlexW3004912775
LanguageEN
Citations received21
References cited104

Rangelands are one of the Earth’s major ice-free land cover types. They provide food and support livelihoods for millions of people in addition to delivering important ecosystems services. However, rangelands are at threat from climate change, although the extent and magnitude of the potential impacts are poorly understood. Any declines in vegetation biomass and fluctuations in grazing availability would be of concern for food production and ecosystem integrity and functionality. In this study, we use a global rangeland model in combination with livestock and socio-economic datasets to identify where and to what extent rangeland systems may be at climatic risk. Overall, mean herbaceous biomass is projected to decrease across global rangelands between 2000 and 2050 under RCP 8.5 (−4.7%), while inter- (year-to-year) and intra- (month-to-month) annual variabilities are projected to increase (+21.3% and +8.2%, respectively). These averaged global estimates mask large spatial heterogeneities, with 74% of global rangeland area projected to experience a decline in mean biomass, 64% an increase in inter-annual variability and 54% an increase in intra-annual variability. Half of global rangeland areas are projected to experience simultaneously a decrease in mean biomass and an increase in inter-annual variability—vegetation trends both potentially harmful for livestock production. These regions include notably the Sahel, Australia, Mongolia, China, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan and support 376 million people and 174 million ruminant Tropical Livestock Units. Additionally, the rangeland communities currently the most vulnerable (here, with the lowest livestock productivities and economic development levels and with the highest projected increases in human population densities) are projected to also experience the most damaging vegetation trends for livestock production. Although the capacity of rangeland systems to adapt is highly complex, analyses such as these generate some of the information required to inform options to facilitate pastoral system mitigation and adaptation strategies under climate change

Agriculture · Agroforestry · Biology · Biomass (ecology · Climate change · Ecosystem · Geography · Grazing · Livelihood · Livestock · Rangeland · Rangeland management · Vegetation (pathology · Climate change impacts on agriculture · Environmental Science · Pasture and Agricultural Systems · Rangeland Management and Livestock Ecology · Ecology · Forestry

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