Falling on fertile ground? Examining the impact of sanctions on opposition movement coalitions
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 24225201 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Finn L Klebe (0009-0008-9892-5162, Osnabrück University), Nils W Metternich (0000-0001-8757-0409, Department of Political Science, University College London , 29-31 Tavistock Sq, London WC1H 9QU) |
| Year | 2026 |
| Volume | 63 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 441-456 |
| Publication date | 2026-06-20 |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Peace Research (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578 |
| Publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1093/jopres/xjag016 |
| OpenAlex | W7155521680 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 2 |
| References cited | 65 |
How do sanctions against the government impact opposition movement coalitions? While existing research has linked sanctions to increased legitimacy for the opposition’s cause as well as higher levels of state violence, we argue that the imposition of broad international sanctions sends a signal of a resolved government to opposition organizations. Consequently, opposition organizations will form coalitions conditional on this signal of resolve. We argue that violent organizations, which are willing to bear higher costs, become more central in opposition coalitions during broad sanctions against the government. We also expect the composition of alliances to change, bringing about alliances between ideologically more heterogeneous organizations in the face of a more resolved government. Using a multilayer network analytic framework, we test our theory by analyzing opposition movements on the African continent from 1990 to 2015. A within-case analysis of the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa further illustrates the causal mechanism. We find considerable empirical support for our main argument, which contributes to our understanding of how sanctions can promote or hinder the prospects of opposition movements.
anti-apartheid movement · coalition formation · ideological heterogeneity · international sanctions · multilayer network analysis · opposition movements · Political violence · South Africa · Economic Sanctions and International Relations · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Political Conflict and Governance
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| Citations per year | 2 |
|---|---|
| Citation span | 2026 - 2026 (1) |
| Highly cited | No |