Will there be blood? Explaining violence during coups d'état

Bibliographic Data

ID3916559
AuthorsErica De Bruin (0000-0003-4168-9898, Hamilton College, corresponding author)
Year2019
Volume56
Issue6
Pages797-811
Publication date2019-11-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022343319839449
OpenAlexW2949498284
LanguageEN
Citations received23
References cited50

Although just under half of all coup d'état attempts involve fatalities, there has been surprisingly little attention to the conditions under which coups turn violent. Existing research emphasizes the incentives coup plotters have to avoid bloodshed but does not explain the conditions under which violence nonetheless occurs. This article develops a theoretical framework that predicts that the extent of violence that occurs during coup attempts will vary systematically with central features of incumbent regimes and coup plotters. It then tests these predictions using new data on the fatalities associated with 377 coup attempts between 1950 and 2017. Coups against military regimes are found to be less violent than those against civilian dictatorships. This is because military rulers are better able to estimate the likelihood of the coup succeeding and more sensitive to the costs associated with using violence to suppress a coup. Since their post-coup fates tend to be better than those of other authoritarian leaders, they also have fewer incentives to hang on to power at any cost. The analysis also demonstrates that coups led by senior officers involve less bloodshed than those by junior officers and enlisted men. However, coups against rulers that counterbalance their militaries are no more violent than those against rulers that do not. The results shed new light on the dynamics of coup attempts

Authoritarianism · Clientelism · Criminology · Democracy · Dictatorship · Economics · Incentive · Market economy · Medical emergency · Poison control · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Power (physics) · Sociology · Human Factors and Ergonomics · Law · Medicine · Political Conflict and Governance · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East · Southeast Asian Sociopolitical Studies

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