Intimidating voters with violence and mobilizing them with clientelism

Bibliographic Data

ID3917898
AuthorsMascha Rauschenbach (0000-0002-1496-5933, School of Social Sciences, University of Mannheim & German Institute for Development Evaluation (DEval), corresponding author), Katrin Paula (0000-0003-4563-1298, University of Mannheim)
Year2019
Volume56
Issue5
Pages682-696
Publication date2019-09-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022343318822709
OpenAlexW2939267203
LanguageEN
Citations received44
References cited53

Recent research suggests that intimidating voters and electoral clientelism are two strategies on the menu of manipulation, often used in conjunction. We do not know much, however, about who is targeted with which of these illicit electoral strategies. This article devises and tests a theoretical argument on the targeting of clientelism and intimidation across different voters. We argue that in contexts where violence can be used to influence elections, parties may choose to demobilize swing and opposition voters, which frees up resources to mobilize their likely supporters with clientelism. While past research on this subject has either been purely theoretical or confined to single country studies, we offer a first systematic cross-national and multilevel analysis of clientelism and voter intimidation in seven African countries. We analyze which voters most fear being intimidated with violence and which get targeted with clientelistic benefits, combining new regional-level election data with Afrobarometer survey data. In a multilevel analysis, we model the likelihood of voters being targeted with either strategy as a function of both past election results of the region they live in and their partisan status. We find that voters living in incumbent strongholds are most likely to report having being bribed in elections, whereas those living in opposition strongholds are most fearful of violent intimidation. We further provide suggestive evidence of a difference between incumbent supporters and other voters. We find support that incumbent supporters are more likely to report being targeted with clientelism, and mixed support for the idea that they are less fearful of intimidation. Our findings allow us to define potential hot spots of intimidation. They also provide an explanation for why parties in young democracies concentrate more positive inducements on their own supporters than the swing voter model of campaigning would lead us to expect

Argument (complex analysis) · Clientelism · Intimidation · Opposition (politics) · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Sociology · Survey data collection · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Law · Medicine · Political Conflict and Governance · Politics and Society in Latin America

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