Myopic Social Prediction and the Solo Comparison Effect
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6203972 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Dward A Moore (0000-0002-6537-9598, Carnegie Mellon University), Don A Moore, Tai Gyu Kim (Carnegie Mellon University) |
| Year | 2003 |
| Volume | 85 |
| Issue | 6 |
| Pages | 1121-1135 |
| Publication date | 2003-01-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | No |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-3514 • E-ISSN: 1939-1315 |
| Publisher | American Psychological Association (APA) (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1037/0022-3514.85.6.1121 |
| PMID | 14674818 |
| OpenAlex | W2124393642 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 37 |
| References cited | 77 |
Four experiments explored the psychological processes by which people make comparative social judgments. Each participant chose how much money to wager on beating an opponent on either a difficult or a simple trivia quiz. Quiz difficulty did not influence the average person's probability of winning, yet participants bet more on a simple quiz than on a difficult quiz in the first 3 experiments. The results suggest that this effect results from a tendency to attend more closely to a focal actor than to others. Experiment 4 directly manipulated focusing; when participants were led to focus on the opponent instead of themselves, the effect was reversed. The discussion relates the results to other literatures including overly optimistic self-evaluation, false consensus, overconfidence, and social comparison
Adversary · Cognitive psychology · Epistemology · Overconfidence effect · Simple (philosophy) · Social comparison theory · Statistics · Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics · Psychology · Psychology of Moral and Emotional Judgment · Social and Intergroup Psychology · Social Psychology
A sampling model of social judgment
The trouble with overconfidence
The influence of outcome desirability on optimism
“Last-Place Aversion”
Flawed Self-Assessment
Social Perception of Self-Enhancement Bias and Error
The desirability bias in predictions under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty
Searching for the Limits and Explanations of the Nonselective Superiority Bias
Bounded awareness
The superior psychological impact of absolute (vs. relative) standing feedback does not depend on the reward criterion
Effects of task difficulty on use of advice
Comparative Optimism and Event Skewness
Choosing Between Lotteries
What Goes Up Apparently Needn't Come Down
One step ahead in the game
Deconstructing the better-than-average effect
Error and bias in comparative judgment
Christian self-enhancement
Maybe holier, but definitely less evil, than you
Are people excessive or judicious in their egocentrism? A modeling approach to understanding bias and accuracy in people's optimism
My worst faults and misdeeds
Are Women Brave or Braver Than Men? Judgments of Implicit and Explicit Intergroup Comparisons
Self-enhancement and self-protection
Economic preferences and temperament traits among business leaders and paid employees
Information, overconfidence and trading
Reducing within-group overconfidence through group identity and between-group confidence judgments
I think I can, I think I can”
Team allegiance can lead to both optimistic and pessimistic predictions
Unhealthy and unaware? Misjudging social comparative standing for health-relevant behavior
Losing sight of oneself in the above-average effect
The rational side of egocentrism in social comparisons
The role of egocentrism and focalism in the emotion intensity bias
Skilled or unskilled, but still unaware of it
Biases in Social Comparative Judgments
Syntax and the Illusion of Fit
Underpredicting Learning after Initial Experience with a Product
Revisiting the Instrumentality of Voice
The self-concept
Advances In Experimental Social Psychology
Social Indicators of Well-Being
Overconfidence and Excess Entry
When Social Outcomes Aren′t Fair
The simulation heuristic
Probabilistic mental models
Simultaneous over- and underconfidence
Intergroup Relations
Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?
Preference and belief
Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts
Does Living in California Make People Happy? A Focusing Illusion in Judgments of Life Satisfaction
Features of similarity.
Confirmation, disconfirmation, and information in hypothesis testing.
Support theory
Judgment under Uncertainty
On the psychology of prediction.
Rediscovering the Social Group
The Intuitive Psychologist And His Shortcomings
Handbook of Social Comparison
Rediscovering the Social Group
The enhancement effect in probability judgment
On the evaluation of one-sided evidence
Ultimatum bargaining behavior
The spotlight effect in social judgment
The truly false consensus effect
Personal contact, individuation, and the better-than-average effect
Simultaneous assimilation and contrast effects in judgments of self and others
When comparisons arise
Social Categorization Moderates Social Projection
The “false consensus effect”
Optimism, Pessimism, and the Direction of Self–Other Comparisons
A Theory of Social Comparison Processes
"The "relative self
Point of view and perceptions of causality
Focalism
They saw a negotiation
Self-schemata and processing information about the self
Egocentric biases in availability and attribution
"Feeling "holier than thou
What's wrong with cross-cultural comparisons of subjective Likert scales
No one in my group can be below the group's average
Social utility and decision making in interpersonal contexts
Videotape and the attribution process
The Influence of Egocentrism and Focalism on People's Optimism in Competitions
Perspective-taking
Lake Wobegon be gone! The "below-average effect" and the egocentric nature of comparative ability judgments
Shifting social identities as a strategy for deflecting threatening social comparisons
| Unique citing works | 37 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 1,68 |
| Citation span | 2004 - 2024 (21) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 34 |