When Will They Ever Learn
Coercive Bargaining in Recurrent Crises
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6284528 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Russell J Leng (Middlebury College, corresponding author) |
| Year | 1983 |
| Volume | 27 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Pages | 379-419 |
| Publication date | 1983-09-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002783027003001 |
| OpenAlex | W2162192421 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 138 |
| References cited | 27 |
A set of hypotheses derived from experiential learning and a realpolitik orientation to crisis bargaining are employed to investigate the bargaining behavior of pairs of states embroiled in recurring crises. It is proposed that in crisis bargaining, experiential learning focuses on the outcome of the preceding crisis, and the lessons drawn from that experience are interpreted in accordance with a realpolitik orientation that stresses the importance of a credible demonstration of power and resolve. The hypotheses predict that in crises between states of relatively equal military capabilities, successful outcomes encourage policymakers to repeat the bargaining strategy employed in the previous crisis, while failures lead to more coercive bargaining in the next crisis. Employing events data from a sample of 18 disputes among 6 pairs of states, each pair having been engaged in three successive crises, a significant pattern of shifts to more coercive bargaining following crises with unsuccessful outcomes was found
Bargaining power · Economics · Experiential learning · Microeconomics · Outcome (game theory · Political science · Power (physics · Realpolitik · Sample (material · Set (abstract data type · International Development and Aid · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Political Conflict and Governance
Trends in the Analysis of Interstate Rivalries
Militarization and War
War and Peace in International Rivalry
Enduring Rivalries in the Asia-Pacific
The First World War and International Relations Theory
Introduction
Turning Our Attention from the What to the How
Rivalry, Uncertainty, and Militarized Compellent Threats
On the origins, persistence and termination of spatial and positional rivalries in world politics
One Issue Leads to Another
Poliheuristic Theory, Bargaining, and Crisis Decision Making
The Effects of Rivalry on Rivalry
Escalation
Exploring the Relevance and Contribution of Mediation to Peace-Building
Lessons that Lead to War
The interdependence of conflict management attempts
How mediator leadership transitions influence mediation effectiveness
Precrisis military hostility and escalation in international crises
Can you trust a dictator
Dangerous bargains with the devil? Incorporating new approaches in peace science for the study of war
Opportunity Crises
Reputation for Resolve, Interests, and Conflict
Mapping the Probability of War and Analyzing the Possibility of Peace
Aegean Territorial Waters Conflict
Contentious Issues as Opportunities for Diversionary Behavior
Unexpected Companions
An Evolutionary Approach To the Study of Interstate Rivalry
Failing to succeed? The cumulative impact of international mediation revisited
Testing Alternative Models of Reciprocity Against Interaction During the Cold War
Cumulation in Qip
R. J. Rummel's Understanding Conflict and War
Issue Rivalries
Just a Phase
Learning and the Evolution of Enduring International Rivalries
The Correlates of War Project
Current and recent educational research with and in developing countries by U.K. researchers
Taking “enduring” out of enduring rivalry
Measure for measure
Conflict and cooperation in American‐Soviet relations
The empirical importance of enduring rivalries
Political structure and foreign policy learning
The evolution of disputes
The escalation of disputes to war
Learning from betrayal
Peaceful dyads
Time Present and Time Past
Disaggregating Peace
Turning down the heat
Escalation at the outset
Conceptualizing Interstate Conflict
The onset and initiation of disputes
You’ve Got to Know When to Fold ‘Em
Power, resolve and bargaining in international crises
The consequences of war
Bargaining power among potential allies
From “frozen conflict” to enduring rivalry
Crisis Management in the Catholic Church
Agenda setting, localisation and the third-person effect
Armaments without War
The Probability of War, 1816-1992. Presidential Address to the International Studies Association, March 25, 2002, New Orleans
The Causes of the Second World War in Europe
The Global Diffusion of Public Policies
Distinguishing Rivals That Go to War from Those That Do Not
The Democratic Peace Through the Lens of Culture, 1820-1989
Repetitive Military Challenges and Recurrent International Conflicts, 1918-1994
Militarized Interstate Crises
A Unified Explanation of Territorial Conflict
Power Differentials and War in Rival Dyads
Capabilities, Allocations, and Success in Militarized Disputes and Wars, 1816-1976
Enduring Rivalries
Foreign Policy Decisionmakers As Practical-Intuitive Historians
In the Nick of Time
Evolving Foreign Policy Norms
Clear and Present Strangers
A Spatial Model of Crisis Bargaining
Introduction
The Future of Sino-Russian Relations in the Russian Far East
Learning to listen
The Steps to War
Humiliation and Third-Party Aggression
Learning, Realism, and Alliances
Alliances, Arms Buildups and Recurrent Conflict
The Path(s) to Rivalry
Hot Spots or Hot Hands? Serial Crisis Behavior, Escalating Risks, and Rivalry
Sowing the Seeds of Conflict
Vulnerability and nationalism
Introduction
Enduring Rivalries
Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Crisis Escalation
Multiple Audiences and Reputation Building in International Conflicts
Your Reputation Precedes You
Integrative Complexity and British Decisions during the Munich and Polish Crises
Principal Rivalries
Shocks to the System
Bones of Contention
Reputations and Signaling in Coercive Bargaining
It Takes Two to Tango
Regime Type, Strategic Interaction, and the Diversionary Use of Force
System Uncertainty, Risk Propensity, and International Conflict among the Great Powers
The Consequences of Defeat
The strategy of social protest
An encyclopedia of world history, ancient, medieval, and modern, chronologically arranged.
The Intermediaries
Essence of Decision
Conflict Among Nations
Perception and Misperception in International Politics
Essence of decision
Perception and Misperception in International Politics
Politics Among Nations
The ‘Operational Code’
Prisoner's Dilemma
Power and interdependence
A Thousand Days. John F. Kennedy in the White House
Handbook of social psychology
The Acute International Crisis
The Interface Between Beliefs and Behavior
Influence Strategies, Success, and War
"The "Operational Code
Cooperation and Conflict in Foreign Policy Behavior
Dangerous Disputes
Political Realism and Human Interests
Mainsprings of Indian and Pakistani Foreign Policies
Politics Among Nations
Mainsprings of Indian and Pakistani Foreign Policies
The Twenty Years' Crisis
| Unique citing works | 138 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 3,21 |
| Citation span | 1983 - 2025 (43) |
| Citation velocity | recent |
| Highly cited | Yes |
| Citation types | Neutral: 138 |