Politicians' Theories of Voting Behavior

Bibliographic Data

ID3461781
AuthorsJ Lucas (0000-0002-3498-7267, University of Calgary, corresponding author), Lior Sheffer (0000-0002-4049-7299, Tel Aviv University, corresponding author), Peter John Loewen (0000-0003-2690-4158, Cornell University, corresponding author), Stefaan Walgrave (0000-0003-1814-1015, University of Antwerp, corresponding author), Karolin Soontjens (0000-0002-4615-510X, University of Antwerp, corresponding author), Eran Amsalem (0000-0002-3135-9775, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, corresponding author), Stefanie Bailer (0000-0002-8646-6076, University of Basel, corresponding author), Nathan Brack (0000-0003-4496-6109, Université Libre de Bruxelles, corresponding author), Christian Breunig (0000-0002-8074-6712, University of Konstanz, corresponding author), Pirmin Bundi (0000-0001-5047-072X, University of Lausanne, corresponding author), Linda Coufal (0000-0003-1678-8835, Charles University, corresponding author), Paul Dumont (0000-0001-6124-8833, Australian National University, corresponding author), Sarah Lachance (0000-0001-8341-6113, University of Calgary, corresponding author), Miguel M Pereira (0000-0001-6621-9863, London School of Economics and Political Science, corresponding author), Mikael Persson (0000-0002-5377-2173, University of Gothenburg, corresponding author), Jean-Benoit Pilet (0000-0001-5612-0835, Université Libre de Bruxelles, corresponding author), Anne Rasmussen (0000-0002-9517-3929, King's College London, corresponding author), Maj-Britt Sterba (0000-0002-4674-1694, University of Konstanz, corresponding author), Frédéric Varone (0000-0002-5620-3291, University of Geneva, corresponding author)
Year2025
Volume119
Issue3
Pages1304-1321
Publication date2025-08-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueAmerican Political Science Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/s0003055424001060
OpenAlexW4404043574
LanguageEN
Citations received13
References cited95

While political scientists regularly engage in spirited theoretical debates about elections and voting behavior, few have noticed that elected politicians also have theories of elections and voting. Here, we investigate politicians' positions on eight central theoretical debates in the area of elections and voting behavior and compare politicians' theories to those held by ordinary citizens. Using data from face-to-face interviews with nearly one thousand politicians in 11 countries, together with corresponding surveys of more than twelve thousand citizens, we show that politicians overwhelmingly hold thin, minimalist, "democratic realist" theories of voting, while citizens' theories are more optimistic and policy oriented. Politicians' theoretical tendencies-along with their theoretical misalignment from citizens-are remarkably consistent across countries. These theories are likely to have important consequences for how politicians campaign, communicate with the public, think about public policy, and represent their constituents

Economics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Positive economics · Sociology · Voting · Voting behavior · Electoral Systems and Political Participation · Gender Politics and Representation · Law · Social Policy and Reform Studies

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