The legacy of foreign patrons

External state support and conflict recurrence

Bibliographic Data

ID3916852
AuthorsNiklas Karlén (0000-0001-8428-4861, Uppsala University, corresponding author)
Year2017
Volume54
Issue4
Pages499-512
Publication date2017-07-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022343317700465
OpenAlexW2620313426
LanguageEN
Citations received29
References cited56

Why do some armed conflicts that have ended experience renewed fighting while others do not? Previous research on conflict recurrence has approached this question by looking at domestic factors such as how the war was fought, how it ended or factors associated with its aftermath. With the exception of the literature on third-party security guarantees, the influence of outside actors has often been overlooked. This article explores the role of external states and suggests when and how their involvement is likely to affect the probability of renewed warfare. The main argument is that the legacy of outside support creates an external support structure that affects the previous combatants' willingness as well as their opportunities to remobilize. This means that armed conflicts with external state support will experience a greater likelihood of recurrence compared to other conflicts which did not see external support. The theory is tested using Cox proportional hazards models on global data of intrastate armed conflicts 1975-2009. The findings suggest that external support to rebels increases the risk of conflict recurrence in the short term as groups receive or anticipate renewed assistance. The results also indicate that it is more important for rebel groups to have had enduring support over the years in the previous conflict rather than access to multiple state sponsors. External support provided to governments is not associated with conflict recurrence

Affect (linguistics) · Argument (complex analysis) · Armed conflict · Computer security · Criminology · Political economy · Political science · Sociology · State (computer science) · Computer Science · International Development and Aid · Law · Medicine · Peacebuilding and International Security · Political Conflict and Governance · Psychology · Social Psychology

Tools

Open DOISci-Hub