The Perils of Predicting Proliferation
Bibliographic Data
| ID | 6283536 |
|---|---|
| Authors | Alexander H Montgomery (0000-0003-4166-0534, Department of Political Science Reed College, Portland), Scott D Sagan (0000-0003-0194-417X, Department of Political Science Stanford University, Stanford) |
| Year | 2009 |
| Volume | 53 |
| Issue | 2 |
| Pages | 302-328 |
| Publication date | 2009-04-01 |
| Peer Reviewed | Yes |
| Open Access | Yes |
| Type | ARTICLE |
| Venue | Journal of Conflict Resolution (JOURNAL) |
| Journal identifiers | ISSN: 0022-0027 • E-ISSN: 1552-8766 |
| Publisher | SAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER) |
| DOI | 10.1177/0022002708330581 |
| OpenAlex | W2035586423 |
| Language | EN |
| Citations received | 39 |
| References cited | 68 |
Studies of nuclear proliferation share five serious problems. First, nuclear programs' initiation and completion dates are ambiguous and difficult to code, but findings are rarely subjected to sufficient robustness tests using alternative codings. Second, independent variables overlook important factors such as prestige and bureaucratic power and often use poor proxies for concepts such as the nonproliferation regime. Third, methodologies and data sets should be tightly coupled to empirical questions but are instead often chosen for convenience. Fourth, some findings provide insights already known or believed to be true. Fifth, findings can ignore or gloss over data crucial for policy making and wider debates. This article reviews new quantitative research on nuclear proliferation, noting improved analysis and lingering problems. It highlights the 1999 Kargil war to explore dangers of relying on stock data sets and the need for research on statistical outliers. It concludes with a future research agenda aimed at correcting problems and a cautionary note regarding hasty application of quantitative results to policy making
Bureaucracy · Econometrics · Economics · Nuclear proliferation · Nuclear weapon · Operations research · Outlier · Political science · Positive economics · Prestige · Robustness (evolution · Sociology · Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science · Economic Sanctions and International Relations · International Relations and Foreign Policy · Law · Mathematics · Political Conflict and Governance
Remote assessment of countries’ nuclear, biological, and cyber capabilities
Why do States Pursue Nuclear Weapons (or Not)
Model-based calculations of the probability of a country’s nuclear proliferation decisions
If Kroenig is right, the United States needs a new nonproliferation policy. Soon
Warheads of Energy
Nuclear power in the Middle East
American Bias in Global Security Studies Data
State Compliance and the Track Record of International Security Institutions
American Perspectives and Blind Spots on World Politics
Fear and Loathing
The Myth of the “Poor Man's Atomic Bomb”
Mixed Methods Research in the Study of Political and Social Violence and Conflict
Explaining state participation in ten universal WMD treaties
Registering Theory-Based Predictions in Political Science
Introducing ν -CLEAR
Nuclear weapons and interstate conflict behavior
Splitting Atoms
Survival of the best fit
Posturing for Peace? Pakistan's Nuclear Postures and South Asian Stability
Varieties of Assurance
Revisiting the puzzle of endogenous nuclear proliferation
Shadow Wars in the Shadow of the Bomb
Achieving Minimum Deterrence
Leaders' Perceptions and Nuclear Proliferation
Social Scientific Analysis of Nuclear Weapons
Does the Bomb Really Embolden? Revisiting the Statistical Evidence for the Nuclear Emboldenment Thesis
What Does It Take to Deter? Regional Power Nuclear Postures and International Conflict
Nuclear Posture, Nonproliferation Policy, and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons
Major Powers and Militarized Conflict
Give Peace a (Second) Chance
Examining Explanations for Nuclear Proliferation
Learning to Predict Proliferation
A Dynamic Theory of Nuclear Proliferation and Preventive War
Who Supports Nuclear Armament in Japan? Threat Perceptions and Japan's Nuclear Armament
The Causes of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation
Nukes with Numbers
Conflict and Cooperation on Nuclear Nonproliferation
Making It Personal
Nuclear balance and the initiation of nuclear crises
Paths to peace
Triangulating Peace
Fuzzy-Set Social Science
The Nuclear Taboo
Clarify
The Limits of Safety
The Psychology of Nuclear Proliferation
Back to the Future
Democracies at War
Nuclear Logics
Instrumental Variables and the Search for Identification
Ringing in Proliferation
Democratization and the Danger of War
Proliferation Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers
Command and Control in Emerging Nuclear Nations
Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons? Three Models in Search of a Bomb
Back to the Future
The Perils of Proliferation
Proliferation Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers
The Political Economy of Nuclear Restraint
Never Say Never Again
Democratization and the Danger of War
Why Do States Build Nuclear Weapons
The dynamics of nuclear proliferation
Role Theory and Foreign Policy
The Correlates of Nuclear Proliferation
Taking a Walk on the Supply Side
A Strategic Approach to Nuclear Proliferation
Determinants of Nuclear Weapons Proliferation
The Extended Deterrent Value of Nuclear Weapons
Bargaining, Nuclear Proliferation, and Interstate Disputes
The Spread of Nuclear Weapons and International Conflict
Nuclear Taboo And War Initiation in Regional Conflicts
Winning with the Bomb
Are Soldiers Less War-Prone than Statesmen
Evaluating the Nuclear Peace Hypothesis
Importing the Bomb
Power Positions
Network Analysis for International Relations
The Capitalist Peace
Making the Most of Statistical Analyses
Exploding the Black Box
The Brooding Shadow
Of gauchos and gringos
Proliferation and International Crisis Behavior
Exporting Mass Destruction? The Determinants of Dual-Use Trade
Extended Deterrence and the Outbreak of War
Normative and Structural Causes of Democratic Peace, 1946-1986
Nuclear Myths and Political Realities
The Case against a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent
Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises
Liberalism and World Politics
The Case for a Ukrainian Nuclear Deterrent
Powerful Pacifists
The Ambivalence of Nuclear Histories
Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes
Tacit Knowledge, Weapons Design, and the Uninvention of Nuclear Weapons
| Unique citing works | 39 |
|---|---|
| Citations per year | 2,44 |
| Citation span | 2010 - 2026 (17) |
| Citation velocity | current |
| Highly cited | No |
| Citation types | Neutral: 38 |