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Transnational terrorism, US military aid, and the incentive to misrepresent

Bibliographic Data

ID3917660
AuthorsNavin A Bapat (0000-0002-6058-3717, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, corresponding author)
Year2011
Volume48
Issue3
Pages303-318
Publication date2011-05-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueJournal of Peace Research (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0022-3433 • E-ISSN: 1460-3578
PublisherSAGE Publications Inc (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1177/0022343310394472
OpenAlexW2017648181
LanguageEN
Citations received54
References cited34

This study proposes a strategic explanation for the USA's continued provision of military aid to host states with problems of terrorism, despite its poor empirical record. Using a game theoretic model, I demonstrate that US military aid creates a moral hazard problem. If host states are provided with the tools to pacify their territory only if terrorist campaigns are ongoing, but will lose this aid once the problem of terrorism ceases, host states have little incentive to accelerate the demise of terrorist groups. However, the model demonstrates that while military aid does not accomplish the US goal of disarming terrorists, military aid is effective at preventing host states from negotiating with terrorist organizations. The provision of military aid provides a disincentive for host states to reach a negotiated settlement with terrorist groups, and therefore prevents terrorist organizations from altering the status quo that is favorable to the USA. This suggests that while military aid may not be effective at actually disarming terrorist groups, it can be effective at keeping terrorist groups out of power. These hypotheses are tested using the Jones & Libicki (2008) data on terrorism from 1997 to 2006. The empirical results support the conclusions of the theoretical model

Computer security · Economics · Incentive · International trade · Microeconomics · Moral hazard · Negotiation · Political economy · Political science · Terrorism · Computer Science · International Development and Aid · Law · Political Conflict and Governance · Religion, Society, and Development

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Unique citing works54
Citations per year3,6
Citation span2011 - 2026 (16)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 53

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