Skip to main content

ETHNOS_APP

Home • Search • Journals • List 0

The Guardianship Dilemma

Regime Securitythroughandfromthe Armed Forces

Bibliographic Data

ID3572229
AuthorsR Blake Mcmahon (0000-0002-6943-3520, University of California San Diego), Branislav L Slantchev (0000-0003-3404-5242, University of California San Diego)
Year2015
Volume109
Issue2
Pages297-313
Publication date2015-05-01
Peer ReviewedYes
Open AccessYes
TypeARTICLE
VenueAmerican Political Science Review (JOURNAL)
Journal identifiersISSN: 0003-0554 • E-ISSN: 1537-5943
PublisherCambridge University Press (CUP) (PUBLISHER)
DOI10.1017/s0003055415000131
OpenAlexW2145293964
LanguageEN
Citations received68
References cited39

Armed forces strong enough to protect the state also pose a threat to the state. We develop a model that distills this "Guardianship Dilemma" to its barest essentials, and show that the seemingly ironclad logic underlying our existing understanding of civil-military relations is flawed. Militaries contemplating disloyalty must worry about both successfully overthrowing the governmentanddefeating the state's opponent. This twin challenge induces loyalty as the state faces increasingly strong external threats, and can be managed effectively by rulers using a number of policy levers. Disloyalty can still occur when political and military elites hold divergent beliefs about the threat environment facing the state, since militaries will sometimes have less incentive to remain loyal than the ruler suspects. Consequently, it is not the need to respond to external threats that raises the risk of disloyalty-as conventional wisdom suggests-but rather uncertainty about the severity of these threats

Adversary · Computer security · Dilemma · Government (linguistics · International law · Law and economics · Political economy · Political science · Politics · Ruler · Security Dilemma · Sociology · State (computer science · Use of force · Law · Peacebuilding and International Security · Philosophy · Political Conflict and Governance · Politics and Conflicts in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Middle East

  • The Slave Trade and Military Formation under Colonialism

    Open Access•Joowon Yi•International Studies Quarterly•2026

  • Rebel Victory and Authoritarian (Dis)Order

    Open Access•K Clarke, Alicia Meng et al.•American Political Science Review•2026

  • Ruling the Ruling Coalition

    Zhaotian Luo, Arturas Rozenas•Quarterly Journal of Political…•2023

  • Domestic Power Consolidation, Leader Survival, and Chinese High-level Visits

    Open Access•Ruixing Cao, Hsuan-Yu Lin•Foreign Policy Analysis•2026

  • I want you…or not? The effect of conscription on coup risk in anocracies

    Open Access•Ioannis Choulis•International Politics•2021

  • Personalism and Negotiation during Civil Conflicts

    Open Access•Ruixing Cao•Journal of Global Security Studies•2024

  • Naval Forces and Civil-Military Relations

    Tobias Böhmelt, Ulrich Pilster et al.•Journal of Global Security Studies•2017

  • The Political Economy of Peacekeeping

    Open Access•N Sakib, Md Muhibbur Rahman•Foreign Policy Analysis•2023

  • More Democracy, More Security? Regionalism and Political [In]Security in East and Southern Africa

    Mopeli Moshoeshoe, Mopeli L Moshoeshoe et al.•Global Society•2024

  • The Security-Force Ethnicity (SFE) Project

    Open Access•Paul L Johnson, Caitlin Thurber•Conflict Management and Peace…•2017

  • Authoritarian regimes and civil–military relations

    Open Access•Abel Escribà‐folch, Tobias Böhmelt et al.•Conflict Management and Peace…•2019

  • Repatriation during conflict

    Open Access•Kara Ross Camarena•World Development•2022

  • Patronage and authoritarian co-optation of the military

    Open Access•Yumin Sheng•World Development•2023

  • The geopolitical strategy of refugee camps

    Open Access•Kara Ross Camarena•World Development•2024

  • Threats to Leaders’ Political Survival and Pro-Government Militia Formation

    Konstantin Ash•International Interactions•2016

  • Coup-Proofing and Military Inefficiencies

    Andrew W Bausch•International Interactions•2017

  • Recouping after Coup-Proofing

    Cameron Brown, CAMERON S BROWN et al.•International Interactions•2015

  • Military in the cabinet and defense spending of civilian governments

    N Sakib, Md Muhibbur Rahman•International Interactions•2023

  • International conflict, military rule, and violent authoritarian breakdown

    Joonbum Bae•International Interactions•2019

  • International Conflict, International Security Environment, and Military Coups

    Nam Kyu Kim•International Interactions•2018

  • Oil discovery, oil production, and coups d’état

    Hans-Inge Langø, Curtis Bell et al.•International Interactions•2022

  • Solving the guardianship dilemma by war

    Open Access•Jacque Gao•Journal of Theoretical Politics•2021

  • Why did Putin invade Ukraine? A theory of degenerate autocracy

    Open Access•Georgy Egorov, Konstantin Sonin•American Journal of Political…•2026

  • Networks of coercion

    Open Access•Tyler Jost, D Mattingly•American Journal of Political…•2025

  • Today they are going to kill us”

    Open Access•Akali Omeni, Fatai Alli•Armed Forces & Society•2026

  • Targeted Sanctions Against Authoritarian Elites

    Open Access•Tsz-Ning Wong, Julia Grauvogel et al.•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2026

  • Institutionalized Defense Cooperation and Regime Security

    Open Access•Md Muhibbur Rahman•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2026

  • From Bullets to Balance Sheets

    Open Access•Roya Izadi•International Studies Quarterly•2025

  • Does Oil Promote or Prevent Coups? The Answer is Yes

    Open Access•Frode Martin Nordvik•The Economic Journal•2019

  • Diktatorenendspiel

    Open Access•David Kuhn•Zeitschrift für Politikwissenschaft•2016

  • When Capabilities Backfire

    Peter Schram•The Journal of Politics•2022

  • The Perils of Peace

    Peter B White•The Journal of Politics•2020

  • Authoritarian succession, rules, and conflicts

    Gaziz Abishev, Bakhytzhan Kurmanov et al.•Post-Soviet Affairs•2024

  • Coup-proofing

    Open Access•Hwalmin Jin•Political Science Research and…•2024

  • Last step to the throne

    Open Access•Congyi Zhou•Political Science Research and…•2023

  • The bureaucratic politics of authoritarian repression

    Open Access•Heidi Thomson•Political Science Research and…•2024

  • External Territorial Threats and Military Regimes

    Open Access•Nam Kyu Kim•Political Research Quarterly•2019

  • Cults of personality, preference falsification, and the dictator’s dilemma

    Open Access•Charles Crabtree, Holger L Kern et al.•Journal of Theoretical Politics•2020

  • Preventing Coups and Seeking Allies

    Open Access•Andrew C Mcward, Hohyun Yoon•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2024

  • A House Divided

    Open Access•Cullen S Hendrix, Cullen Hendrix et al.•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2017

  • Who Punishes the Leader? Leader Culpability and Coups during Civil War

    Open Access•Jun Koga Sudduth•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2021

  • Personalist Regime and Rebel Sponsorship in Civil Conflicts

    Open Access•Ruixing Cao•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2025

  • State Security or Exploitation

    Open Access•Roya Izadi•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2022

  • Civil-military Pathologies and Defeat in War

    Open Access•Vipin Narang, Caitlin Talmadge•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2018

  • Pitfalls of Professionalism? Military Academies and Coup Risk

    Open Access•Tobias Böhmelt, Abel Escribà-Folch et al.•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2019

  • Preventing Coups d’état

    Open Access•Erica De Bruin•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2018

  • Self-Reinforcing Civilian Control

    Open Access•Michael R Kenwick•International Studies Quarterly•2020

  • Coup-Proofing in the Shadow of Intervention

    Open Access•Andrew Boutton•International Studies Quarterly•2019

  • The trajectories of personalization

    Open Access•Joan C Timoneda, Abel Escribà-Folch et al.•Democratization•2025

  • The dictator’s legionnaires

    Open Access•Marius Mehrl, Abel Escribà‐folch•Democratization•2024

  • Why Populist Authoritarians Rarely Turn into Repressive Dictators

    K Weyland•Comparative Politics•2025

  • The Authoritarian Wager

    Open Access•Branislav L Slantchev, Kelly S Matush•Comparative Political Studies•2020

  • How Mechanization Shapes Coups

    Open Access•Ioannis Choulis, Marius Mehrl et al.•Comparative Political Studies•2023

  • Revolutionaries for Railways

    Open Access•Chengyuan Ji, Xiao Ma•Comparative Political Studies•2025

  • Coup d’État and Democracy

    Open Access•Curtis Bell•Comparative Political Studies•2016

  • Authoritarian Power Sharing

    Open Access•Alicia Meng, Anne Meng et al.•Annual Review of Political Science•2023

  • Revolution as Mass-Based Regime Change

    Open Access•K Clarke•Annual Review of Political Science•2025

  • Integrating the Civil–Military Relations Subfield

    Risa Brooks, Risa A Brooks•Annual Review of Political Science•2019

  • The Dictator's Power‐Sharing Dilemma

    Open Access•Jack Paine•American Journal of Political…•2021

  • Why Underachievers Dominate Secret Police Organizations

    Open Access•Adam Scharpf, Christian Gläßel•American Journal of Political…•2020

  • How the Party Commands the Gun

    Open Access•D Mattingly, Daniel C Mattingly•American Journal of Political…•2024

  • War Makes the Regime

    Open Access•Ferdinand Eibl, Steffen Hertog et al.•British Journal of Political…•2021

  • Regime cycles and political change in African autocracies

    Open Access•Andrea Carboni, Clionadh Raleigh•The Journal of Modern African…•2021

  • Backdoor peacekeeping

    Open Access•Magnus Lundgren•Journal of Peace Research•2018

  • When human capital threatens the Capitol

    Open Access•Jesse Dillon Savage, Jonathan D Caverley•Journal of Peace Research•2017

  • A test of the democratic peacekeeping hypothesis

    Open Access•Jamie Levin, James Mackay et al.•Journal of Peace Research•2021

  • Autocratic Stability in the Shadow of Foreign Threats

    Open Access•Livio Di Lonardo, Jessica S Sun et al.•American Political Science Review•2020

  • Reframing the Guardianship Dilemma

    Open Access•Jack Paine•American Political Science Review•2022

  • Shaping Strategy

    Risa Brooks, Risa A Brooks•Shaping Strategy•2008

  • Civilian Control of the Military

    Michael C Desch, Michael Desch et al.•Civilian control of the military•2001

  • The Politics of Authoritarian Rule

    Open Access•Milan W Svolik•Politics of Authoritarian Rule•2012

  • On the Salience of Ethnic Conflict

    Joan Esteban, Debraj Ray•American Economic Review•2008

  • Dictators and Their Viziers

    Open Access•Georgy Egorov, Konstantin Sonin•Journal of the European Economic…•2011

  • Political-Military Relations and the Stability of Arab Regimes

    Risa Brooks•Adelphi Series•2013

  • Middle East Contemporary Survey

    Ami Ayalon, Haim Shaked et al.•Middle East Contemporary Survey,…•2019

  • F riends in N eed , F oes to H eed

    Open Access•Andrew Parasiliti, Sinan Antoon•Middle East Policy•2000

  • Coup-Proofing and Military Effectiveness in Interstate Wars, 1967–99

    Open Access•Ulrich Pilster, Tobias Böhmelt•Conflict Management and Peace…•2011

  • External threats and political survival

    Open Access•Cemal Eren Arbatli, Ekim Arbatli•Conflict Management and Peace…•2014

  • Israel-Syria

    Donald Neff•Journal of Palestine Studies•1994

  • Coup-proofing

    James T Quinlivan•International Security•1999

  • The Libyan Armed Forces between Coup-proofing and Repression

    Florence Gaub•Journal of Strategic Studies•2013

  • The Alawi capture of power in Syria

    Daniel Pipes, Daniel Pıpes•Middle Eastern Studies•1989

  • Coup d'Etat

    Richard Clutterbuck•International Affairs•1980

  • Middle East contemporary survey

    Yezid Sayigh•International Affairs•1991

  • Ethnic groups in conflict

    Donald L Horowitz•Ethnic groups in conflict•2000

  • Poverty, the Coup Trap, and the Seizure of Executive Power

    Open Access•John B Londregan, John Londregan et al.•World Politics•1990

  • Helping the enemy? Why transnational Jewish philanthropic foundations donate to Palestinian NGOs in Israel

    Open Access•Oded Haklai•Nations and Nationalism•2008

  • Dominant ethnicity

    Open Access•Eric Kaufmann, Oded Haklai•Nations and Nationalism•2008

  • When War Helps Civil–military Relations

    Open Access•Varun Piplani, Caitlin Talmadge•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2016

  • Determinants of the Attempting and Outcome of Coups d’état

    Open Access•Jonathan Powell•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2012

  • Contracting on Violence

    Open Access•Milan W Svolik•Journal of Conflict Resolution•2013

  • Civil-Military Relations

    Peter D Feaver, Peter Feaver•Annual Review of Political Science•1999

  • Power Sharing and Leadership Dynamics in Authoritarian Regimes

    Open Access•Milan W Svolik•American Journal of Political…•2009

  • Explaining Civil-Military Relations in Complex Political Environments

    Paul Staniland•Security Studies•2008

  • The Puzzle of Personalist Performance

    Caitlin Talmadge•Security Studies•2013

  • The Enemy Within

    Open Access•Philip Roessler•World Politics•2011

  • Global instances of coups from 1950 to 2010

    Open Access•Jonathan Powell, Jonathan M Powell et al.•Journal of Peace Research•2011

  • Introducing Archigos

    Open Access•H E Goemans, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch et al.•Journal of Peace Research•2009

  • The Principle of Convergence in Wartime Negotiations

    Open Access•Branislav L Slantchev•American Political Science Review•2003

  • The Civil-Military Problematique

    Open Access•Peter D Feaver, Peter Feaver•Armed Forces & Society•1996

  • Arab Uprisings, Armed Forces, and Civil-Military Relations

    Open Access•Derek Lutterbeck•Armed Forces & Society•2013

Unique citing works68
Citations per year6,18
Citation span2015 - 2026 (12)
Citation velocitycurrent
Highly citedNo
Citation typesNeutral: 68

Tools

Open DOISci-Hub
Ethnos_APP • Open Source Project • MIT License • Frontend v2.0.0 • Privacy and Cookies • API Documentation: api.ethnos.app/docs • API Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17049435 • Frontend Source Code: GitHub • DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.17050053 • cruz.rio.br • Expectantes Misericordiae